Should Emmanuel Macron emerge triumphant in Sunday’s French presidential election, he has an opportunity not only to remake his nation, but will also offer renewal to the institutions that bind together the 28 states of the European Union (EU). With a lead in the opinion polls of some 20 percentage points over National Front leader Marine Le Pen heading into the final round of voting, his probable victory is welcome relief for liberals across the European Union (EU), who have been in political retreat from the rise of anti-Brussels nationalism and populism. And since deciding to run for the Elysee Palace, the 39-year-old economist had made membership of the EU and strengthening its institutions a key plank in his platform. Indeed, France — along with Germany Italy and the three Benelux nations — were the original six founders of the European Economic Community and its predecessor, the European coal and steel community agreement.
But exactly how can he make a difference? Presuming that French voters go to sleep on Sunday evening knowing they have placed Macron in the palace, the very fact he triumphed is a significant victory against the forces in France, Germany, Hungary, Spain and Italy that want to withdraw from the EU.
The Brexit vote last June by the majority of Britons deeply shook confidence in Brussels, giving a new impetus to opponents of the pan-European experiment. But it will take more than a French-inspired feel-good factor to make things right in the EU. Macron has made it clear that he believes the EU should seek hard divorce terms from Britain for its decision to leave, and the United Kingdom should not benefit in any way from its decision. That means putting the United Kingdom on a waiting list for a trade deal with the EU, making sure it will not become an off-Europe offshore tax haven.
And as a former banker, Macron is only too aware that London’s position as Europe’s leading financial centre is vulnerable, with tens of thousands of jobs to be gained in the financial centres of Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt: It’s one thing to have London now using the pound and in the EU, and quite another to have London using the pound outside the EU, outside a strengthened Eurozone and outside the regulatory ties that bind the whole thing together.
Macron is also eager to push for a stronger EU, with common defence and budgetary measures. His message will go down well with Brussels — and anti-Brexiteers.
