Lebanon needs an effective government. The country is in poor shape with a miserable economy and Prime Minister Tammam Salam’s government has been paralysed by rivalries. It is also a disgrace that the bickering members of the Lebanese parliament have refused to elect a president for two-and-a-half years. And in the midst of all this, Lebanon has had to cope with the arrival of a staggering 1.5 million Syrian refugees, seeking safety from the violence in Syria, putting great stress on Lebanon’s utilities and services. There is also the underlying fear that the violence destroying Syria could spread to Lebanon, where its inadequate security and armed forces would be unable to control it.
Therefore, any hint that the parliament might muster enough of a consensus to elect a president is good news, since Lebanon has been forced to manage for two-and-a-half years without a president. It may be bizarre that a long-term ally of Hezbollah like Michel Aoun has won the support of a long-term enemy of Hezbollah like Sa’ad Hariri, but this is the kind of compromise that politics requires. It is also the kind of compromise that may take Hariri back to power as prime minister, as a quid pro quo for getting Aoun into the presidency.
The next scheduled parliamentary session to elect a president is set for October 31 and if the MPs and the power blocs finally come to a decision, Lebanon will find itself better able to cope with the turbulence that surrounds it and threatens its stability.
Hezbollah is the rogue element in all this. It has enough power to wreck most political deals, but it does not have enough power to achieve such a deal on its own. Lebanon’s tragedy is that Hezbollah has used its power to spoil rather than build, in favour of the politics of its Iranian allies, when it should have been focused on sticking with its Lebanese identity.
Aoun is Hezbollah’s candidate for the presidency and last year, Hezbollah stuck to Aoun when Hariri nominated Hezbollah ally Sulaiman Franjieh for presidency.
So it is bizarre that Hezbollah has not welcomed Hariri’s statement, and their silence indicates that they are either confused by the move or more likely they are checking what they should say with their Iranian masters, who prefer a weak Lebanon that will allow Tehran more geopolitical room for interference and manipulation in Arab politics.
