Years of negotiations on Iran’s controversial nuclear programme came to fruition this week when the deal was adopted by all sides and can now be implemented. The first sanctions are expected to be lifted early in 2016 once Iran proves that it is sticking by its obligations to stop its dangerous nuclear work. Iran’s economy has yawning gaps across all of its key sectors, which are not only confined to its investment-hungry energy industry, but also includes infrastructure and a wide range of manufacturing projects that have been starved of funding. In the current weak oil price regime, Iran will need all the help it can get from outside sources. And even if many of the large global banks have indicated that they will not rush back into Iran for fear of some future policy change, leading to expensive embarrassment, this leaves an opening for the more adventurous bankers. There is an obvious and welcome business sentiment in favour of the deal and the business community is already hard at work preparing for when the sanctions finally fall.
But this business rush should not hide the fact that Iran remains a dangerous political rogue in the region, as it continues to sponsor destabilising forces in countries as far apart as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. It is to be hoped that President Hassan Rouhani comes to understand the dangers of interfering in his neighbours’ affairs and uses the forthcoming prosperity in Iran to move away from such mischief. The region will only see a genuine new start if Rouhani brings the same transparency he promises on the nuclear deal to his foreign policy.
