The New York elections in the two United States primaries did not come up with the stunning upsets that many had been predicting, perhaps with too much of wishful thinking. After winning New York, Hillary Clinton remains almost certain to win the Democrat nomination, to the fury of Bernie Sanders’ camp that had recently felt they had a real chance. Donald Trump won hands down against Ted Cruz and looks likely to become the Republican nominee, despite hopes of the Republican establishment that he will fail. But the maths is not quite as favourable for Trump as it is for Hillary in the other party, and Cruz will continue to mount a vigorous campaign to stop Trump at the Convention.
It is now time for Hillary to change strategy and sound more like a candidate for the presidency, rather than attacking Sanders. Her textbook-success has focused on her experience and complete command of the major issues, but the weakness in Hillary’s campaign has been her lack of emotion. She now needs to show the voting public that she can campaign with her heart not just her head.
On policies, she should stop moving to the left to counter Sanders because that argument is over and in the general election she will need to work with Sanders. Hillary has to change tactics to appeal to the centre, who will be the deciding vote in the real election for presidency and is appalled at the prospect of a Trump candidacy. If she is clever, Hillary will concentrate on generating a constructive optimism and not make the obvious mistake of letting Trump’s foul mouth set the political agenda.
Trump has his own issues as the far more experienced Cruz has been working to get his supporters into the delegations to the Republican Convention. The importance of this is that delegates are only bound by any commitment in the first vote, which may not produce the required majority.
In an open Convention, delegates are free to vote for whom they want, which is what Cruz has been preparing for by packing the delegations. In addition, there are also several hundred delegates who supported candidates who have dropped out, leaving them free to vote how they like in the first vote. This means the Republicans will face a choice between the random prejudices of Trump and the cold arrogance of Cruz. Hillary must be delighted.
