While the government of British Prime Minister Theresa May won the second reading vote over the European Union (Withdrawal) Act by a margin of 326 to 290, this particular piece of Brexit legislation is still a long way from being signed, sealed and delivered. Indeed, if anything, the growing voices of discontent within her own Conservative party at the scope of the powers to be passed to her ministers, if the bill is passed at third reading, should be treated with extreme caution by a party leader whose political misjudgement and personal standing leaves her perilously exposed by potential leadership rivals.
Having passed second reading, the bill can still be fatally amended or voted down, and her imposition of a strict and authoritarian three-line party whip on her members of parliament has ruffled feathers, not just among Europhiles, but among parliamentarians who question the so-called “Henry VIII powers” being granted to cabinet ministers to implements the Brexit policies.
In part, May’s potential troubles stem from the fact that her ministers will effectively be able to decide and amend by ministerial order pieces of legislation affected by Brexit without referral to the House of Commons. Its historical equivalence were powers taken by Henry VIII as he amended Acts of Parliament to allow him to move towards Protestantism, remove medieval powers granted to the Roman Catholic Church, and allow him marry, divorce and behead his succession of six wives. The Brexit decision is now as protracted and complicated for May in the modern day as the philosophical, ideological and religious divisions that split European Christendom in the 16th Century.
Brexit negotiations between the British and Brussels since July has made little progress on the three key issues of London’s financial dues, the rights of EU and British citizens after March 2019 and maintaining the Irish border as it is now. In part, the lack of progress comes from muddled thinking on the British side, and a lack of a clear and coherent Brexit strategy that must satisfy the EU27 on the three core issues. Only when these are settled — and the timetable is for these to be wrapped up by October — can trade and other issues be worked on.
The second-reading vote was a win for May, but in the grander scheme of things, it is not cause for victory. It is simply a deferral of an inevitable eruption within her own party ranks — one of many divisive days as the clock winds down to March 29, 2019.
