Dubai: Ambassador Riaz Khokhar served as High Commissioner to India from 1992-1997 and also as an Ambassador to the United States and China. He later served as Foreign Secretary from 2002-2005 and retired from foreign service in 2005.
Given his background and expertise on Pakistan-India relations, Gulf News speaks to Ambassador Khokhar to gauge the impact that the return of the BJP to power, albeit with a hardliner like Narendra Modi as prime minister, might have on India’s policy on Pakistan.
How do you foresee the turnout in the general elections in India given that polls and public opinion surveys have shown the BJP to be the front-runner?
Elections are underway in India but the picture is complex and unclear. Most polls are showing that the BJP is ahead but it is unclear if it can secure the required 272 seats on its own.
The BJP is strong in the Hindi belt, Gujarat and Maharashtra. It is weak in the northeastern states, Bengal and southern states. It will most probably have to find allies among regional parties to form a stable government in Delhi.
The Congress is clearly trailing. Incumbency, huge corruption and political scandals and poor performance have weighed down the party. Manmohan Singh is a decent gentleman, but was too constrained by the Gandhi family. He had no real political space.
Congress has not nominated its candidate for prime minister. It seems they are protecting Rahul. If the party is beaten badly, Rahul will get the flak. Sonia wants to avoid that. The BJP is making fun of Congress.
India has had coalition governments for nearly two decades. So whether it is the BJP or Congress both will have to find coalition partners. Generally, coalition governments are weak and vulnerable to political machinations. So Pakistan will have to deal with a BJP or Congress coalition government.”
Would AAP/Kejriwal’s foray in politics affect the votes of BJP and Congress?
The Aam Admi Party made a big splash in the Delhi election and defeated a very important Congress figure, Sheila Dikshit. In the Lok Sabha election, it’s difficult to see how it will perform. Its anticorruption plank has an appeal. The Congress and BJP are huge, well-organised parties, rich in manpower and funds.
Indian media is hoping that the AAP may get between a dozen to 20 seats which may be a fair assessment. But it is the well-established regional parties that will make the difference. Much horse-trading will take place!
Do you feel Narendra Modi will influence a more hardline shift in India’s policy towards Pakistan, given his views?
We have to keep in mind that Modi is a hardened product of the RSS, the diehard extremist Hindu organisation, which in fact controls the BJP. The BJP is the soft political face of the RSS. The RSS is anti-Muslim and viciously anti-Pakistan.
Modi has risen from the ranks and is creditable in that he has a humble background but has proved his political mettle. He is not as educated and sophisticated as [Atal Bihari] Vajpayee or [L.K] Advani but has charisma and the knack of appealing to the common man. As Chief Minister of Gujarat he has proved to be an effective administrator and smart at economic management. He has made Gujarat a model of economic development.
But Modi has huge negative baggage — his anti-Muslim attitude. The common perception is that he was responsible for the brutal massacre of 2,000 Muslims in 2002. Modi also played a role in the demolition of the Babri Mosque in 1992. He was seen in pictures with Advani and shouting anti-Muslim slogans. So policymakers in Pakistan should have no illusion about who Modi is and should study his background seriously.
What about Modi’s foreign policy views, specifically in dealing with Pakistan? How will those impact relations between the two states?
Modi has scant experience in foreign policy matters. His statements on foreign policy have been rare. The few remarks about relations with neighbouring countries were rhetorical and deficient.
Modi will rely on the Indian establishment and ex-Foreign Service officials who join his party. Reports suggest he will not be guided by the old guard and Arun Jaitley, a rising star in the BJP, may be his choice as foreign minister.
Modi has been accusing Manmohan Singh of showing weakness in dealing with China, Bangladesh and especially Pakistan.
Modi has been openly saying that he will take a tougher line on Pakistan. This may be election politics but cannot be ignored. He has promised to take effective measures to protect India’s borders and security, especially against any terrorism directed from neighbouring states. His position on terrorism is very clear.
For India, terrorism has become the core issue with Pakistan. Since 2001 it has maligned Pakistan in the international community and the media. So Pakistan will have to be very careful in dealing with the BJP.
Also on key substantive disputes and issues, such as Kashmir, Siachen and Sir Creek, Modi will be more strident and inflexible. He will be encouraged by the Indian establishment to take an uncompromising position.
The prospects for worthwhile dialogue on key issues are limited.
Modi however will take a more pragmatic view of trade and economic cooperation with Pakistan. The Big business in India is totally behind Modi and will urge him to push for trade with Pakistan. Some people here see this as a positive factor.
In Pakistan, the present government is overly desperate to have across-the-board trade with India and was about to make the announcement. But it has for now held back. The Army has not cleared it and also the government decided to do so since its decision to go ahead might be misunderstood in India as supportive of the Congress.
Do you feel Nawaz Sharif’s relationship with BJP vis-à-vis Vajpayee will help improve ties between Pakistan and India with another BJP government at the centre, even under Modi? At the time of the Vajpayee-Sharif honeymoon, there was talk of the possibility of Kashmir issue being resolved had it not been for General Musharraf’s ouster of Sharif?
Pakistan will have to deal very deftly with the Modi government. All initiatives planned must be thought through very skilfully.
There was goodwill between Vajpayee and Nawaz. They had a working relationship. The Lahore Agreement was a step forward. Essentially, it simply underlined that India will have talks on Kashmir and all issues will be sorted out peacefully.
So what was new? Frankly nothing. India has been talking to us for ages. But more importantly, India has rarely sat down to negotiate on Kashmir seriously. There is a huge difference in talking and negotiating a dispute. India is only keen to talk about terrorism, trade and people to people contacts and exchanges in the social and cultural field. It has turned the composite dialogue to its advantage. We seem to have given in somewhat.”
Do you feel Pakistan has over the past many years adopted a reticent attitude towards Kashmir, as there is hardly any talk about plebiscite implementation anymore?
Since Musharraf, Pakistan has been following a policy of appeasement, and appeasement is no policy. He really compromised Pakistan’s principled position on Kashmir. He had no mandate for this since he was a dictator.
Musharraf’s statements on the UN resolutions on Kashmir were uneducated and irresponsible. He called them irrelevant and dated.
Pakistan’s position is legally and politically protected by the UN resolutions. The UN had made it sacrosanct that there were three parties to the dispute: India, Pakistan and most importantly the people of Jammu and Kashmir. The dispute had to be resolved through a free and fair plebiscite, to reflect the will of the people. This has not happened.
So then what is Pakistan’s position?
In any case Musharraf had no right to also compromise the position of the Kashmiris. He came up with some half-baked and silly proposals and was negotiating on the back channel.
Back channel diplomacy is an unmitigated disaster for Pakistan. Serious talks on the major disputes must be between governments with the sanction of the parliament and key institutions of the country. Policy must not be based on the foolish whims of individuals.
It seems the present government is following in the footsteps of Musharraf. It’s sad that we repeatedly begged Manmohan Singh to visit Pakistan. This was very undignified.
Pakistan must work for good relations with India. It should be a two-way street. Peace between India and Pakistan is imperative, a necessity. But both sides must be serious and sincere. Peace is in the interest of both countries and for the future of nearly 1.5 billion people. War is not an option for either country. But peace and durable peace has to be based on dignity, honour and interests of the people. One cannot clap with one hand!
I am not suggesting any confrontationist policy. That will be a disaster. So all moves must be serious and sincere; give and take should not become unilateral concessions by one side.
The Indian contention about Pakistan is that it is not doing enough to prosecute terrorists?
Terrorism is a serious issue for both India and Pakistan. Both sides should handle this seriously.
The Bombay [Mumbai attacks] culprits are not free. They are in custody and have appeared in court.
Reportedly, the evidence provided by India is inadequate. India should provide material that will stand up in an independent court. And if incontrovertible evidence is provided, our courts should take a final judgment and punish those involved.
Pakistan too should take up Indian Involvement in Balochistan. We don’t have to behave apologetically.
How much would Afghanistan figure as another “issue” between Pakistan and India, considering the unease Indian presence there has created in Islamabad?
Unfortunately, Afghanistan is becoming an issue between India and Pakistan. Frankly, Pakistan cannot object to any bilateral relationship between India and Afghanistan. They do have good and comprehensive relations. But Pakistan feels India’s intentions are sinister and wants to use Afghanistan for subversive activities in Balochistan and other areas. Two years ago this matter was discussed between the Prime Ministers of the two countries.
But so far there has been no formal dialogue on this issue. But we have to deal with it. Some understanding has to be arrived at to avoid prospects of a proxy warlike situation, which would be disastrous for South Asia.
Riaz Khokhar is a former foreign secretary of Pakistan. He had also served as Pakistan’s high commissioner to India from 1992–1997.
