Dubai: With Narendra Modi playing a larger role in Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) ambitions in national politics, the question that has been doing the rounds in Ahmedabad and New Delhi is: Who is going to take the mantle from Narendrabhai at the chief minister’s office (CMO) in Gandhinagar, should the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate indeed go on to occupy the hot seat at 7 Racecourse Road (the prime minister’s official residence) in the national capital?
Four names are currently being billed as prime contenders for the top job in the western Indian state. But the front-runner among this quartet is Anandiben Patel — currently the state’s Revenue and Urban Development Minister and Modi’s most trusted lieutenant in Gujarat.
The tectonics of coalition politics may well come in the way of Modi’s Delhi dream, considering that almost all the opinion polls so far are indicative of a hung parliament with BJP emerging as the single largest party, but way short of the magic mark of 272 seats. However, even if Modi’s dreams of prime ministership do not reach fruition, he is still certain to play a key role in national politics for some time to come. Given the kind of political investment that BJP has made in ‘Brand Modi’ over the last year or so, the Hindu nationalist party will certainly not like to give up on Modi’s mass appeal in a hurry.
And that is precisely the reason why it is important for the BJP central leadership to keep the blue print for a succession plan ready for Gujarat — a state that has been under Modi’s watch since 2002.
Along with Anandiben, there are three other names that are also in the race to step into the shoes of Modi, if and when the Gujarat CM vacates his seat at the sachivalaya (secretariat) to keep his national commitments. They are: Saurabh Patel, the high-profile Power and Industries Minister; Nitin Patel, the Finance Minister; and Vajubhai Vala, the Assembly Speaker.
Each one of these candidates are heavyweights in Gujarat politics in their own rights. However, so far, Anandiben has emerged as the clear favourite. For the last one year, with Modi criss-crossing the country initially as BJP’s national campaign committee chief and now as the prime ministerial candidate, the state administration in Gujarat has increasingly been dependent on Anandiben. And she has handled the responsibilities in Modi’s absence with aplomb, thereby raising her stock within the administration.
Ajay Umat, editor, Navgujarat Samay, a Gujarati daily, told Gulf News from Ahmedabad: “The front-runner for sure is Anandiben. She is a very experienced member of Modi’s cabinet and has always been a very trusted Modi aide. The cast factor is in her favour. Moreover, she hails from northern Gujarat — just like Modi himself. So whichever way you look at it, Anandiben is undoubtedly in a very favourable position.”
Modi’s association with Anandiben dates back to 1988 when the latter joined BJP and participated in a programme, demanding justice for the state’s famine victims. She first joined the cabinet in 1998 and since then has handled key portfolios such as education and women and child welfare.
Anandiben’s biggest success as a state minister so far has been her role as the primary education minister from 1998-2007. Completely overhauling the system of transfers, postings and appointments of school teachers, Anandiben brought the entire administrative ‘culture’ in primary school education out of the clutches of middlemen and touts, thereby establishing a process based on transparency. And the results are showing: According to the India Today magazine, the girl student dropout rate in Gujarat in 2013 was just 2 per cent — down from a horrific 37 per cent in 2001.
As the Revenue Minister too, Anandiben has made her mark. The introduction of the e-Jamin scheme during her tenure has helped reduce frauds in land deals by providing electronic data base and satellite imagery of all land records.
Other contenders
Among the other contenders for the CM’s chair, Saurabh Patel, 54, has quite a fan-following among Gujarat Inc. This suave, tech-savvy entrepreneur-turned-politician, with a master’s degree in Business Administration from the US, is the youngest among the top contenders for the hot seat. Saurabh is the government interface for those looking to invest in the state and his stint as the state Industries Minister has helped fast-track several new projects in Gujarat, keeping the industry-friendly facia of the Modi government in good stead.
Fifty-Six-year-old Nitin Patel, the Finance Minister, is quite influential within the Patel caste in Gujarat. His influence among the powerful oil extractors’ lobby in the state makes him a formidable candidate in Modi’s cabinet. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh is also quite favourably disposed towards his candidature for chief ministership.
Assembly Speaker Vajubhai Vala, 75, is a very experienced minister. He had been the state’s finance minister for 14 years. Vala wields substantial clout among voters and party workers in the Saurashtra area and his candidature for the top job cannot be ruled out, though his advanced age is cited by many as a factor that may ultimately weight against him.
Some political observers in the state are floating the name of Parshottam Rupala, the 67-year-old former president of the state unit and former national vice-president of the party, as a likely contender. However, the fact that Rupala has been out of the state assembly since his defeat in 2007 is one factor that rules him out as a strong contender.
So the four prime candidates — Anandiben, Saurabh, Nitin and Vajubhai — are all competent enough to take on the mantle from Modi. However, the Gujarat succession story will actually be told only when Modi himself decides to narrate it! Such is this man’s clout over the state’s politics.
“Make no mistake. Anandiben is the favourite no doubt, but to say that she is going to be the next CM will be too premature. It is Modi and Modi alone who will take that crucial decision and so far, he has kept his cards very close to his chest,” Bhavesh Shah, principal correspondent for the DNA newspaper in Ahmedabad and a senior political analyst, told Gulf News recently.
Shah, who has seen Modi and BJP politics in Gujarat from very close quarters for a long time is also of the opinion that though Modi’s absence from the state will create a huge leadership vacuum in Gujarat, yet, the principal opposition, Congress, is unlikely to take even an ounce of advantage from that. “Organisationally, Congress is so weak that even without Modi, beating BJP in Gujarat will be a tough ask.”
Modi’s towering presence has so far nullified even the slightest possibility of rumblings of factionalism in Gujarat BJP, but in his absence, will the new CM be able to emerge as a unifying factor across the board?
Reacting to the query, Shah said: “Of course it’s a very big shoe to fill. But I do not see factionalism in Gujarat BJP rearing its ugly head. Afterall, even if Modi is away in Delhi, Gujarat will effectively still be ruled by him!”
