West Bank: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is in a bind after firmly linking any peace talks with Israel to continued restrictions on Jewish colony construction in the West Bank.
With Israel refusing for now to extend the moratorium on new construction, his choices seem stark: quit the month-old US-backed talks at the risk of alienating President Barack Obama, or break a very public promise to his people not to negotiate without a construction ban.
As secretive US mediation efforts drag on, aides say Abbas may try to stall until after November's US midterm elections, hoping Obama will then be bolder in pressuring Israel.
The Palestinian leader still hopes that between now and Friday, when he is to reveal his plans to the Arab League, US mediators will move Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to extend a 10-month-old ban on housing starts in West Bank colonies.
A Palestinian negotiator said the US is seeking an extra 60 days — a widely reported and somewhat mystifying timeframe that has drawn notice for being just enough to get past the midterms.
Netanyahu initially said he would not renew the moratorium, which expired last week.
But on Monday he told his Cabinet he is in intense contacts with the US to try to salvage the talks. If talks break down for good, Abbas has several other choices.
Palestinian officials have recently floated the idea of asking the UN Security Council to recognise a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza and occupied east Jerusalem, territories Israel captured in the 1967 war.
Reconciliation
However, a US veto appears inevitable for now.
Another path would be to push harder to reconcile with Hamas. The internal Palestinian split has eroded Abbas' leverage in negotiations with Israel since he no longer controls a key part of the territory claimed by the Palestinians.
Repeated attempts to reach a power-sharing deal have failed, in part because the West opposes bringing Hamas into the fold. Hamas refuses to recognise Israel, renounce violence or recognise previous agreements with Israel.
But Hamas and Abbas' Fatah movement may have greater incentive now.
Fatah, which had made negotiated peace a key tenet, may need a new strategy to remain politically relevant.
Striking a new tone, Hamas leaders said for the first time in recent days that the Palestinians would fare better in negotiations if united.
"We would force the respect on the world and our Zionist enemy, if we are united as Arabs and Palestinians," said the Hamas leader-in-exile, Khalid Mesha'al.
At a meeting last month, Hamas and Fatah negotiators reported some agreement on the terms of holding parliamentary and presidential elections in the West Bank and Gaza. The thorniest issue, melding the rival security forces, is to be tackled later this month.
Resignation
It remains unclear if the US, which considers Hamas a terrorist group, would give the required blessing, even tacitly. As a last resort, the 75-year-old Abbas — widely seen as a more promising peace negotiator than any likely successor — could also decide to resign. In the past, he has used the threat as leverage, since neither Israel nor the US want it. He also hinted at the possibility to senior Fatah leaders over the weekend.
The colony enterprise in general is toxic with Palestinians, who say that continued construction on lands they claim for their future state sends a message that Israel is not serious about peace.
About two-thirds of Palestinians oppose negotiations without a colony freeze, according to a survey of 1,270 people published Monday by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research. It had an error margin of 3 percentage points.
In Israel some believe Netanyahu faces similar constraints. He sold the initial moratorium as a one-time deal. A majority in his hard-line coalition opposes extending it and many would hardly mourn the demise of the talks.
