The shaky debut last week of a new unity government in Libya brings western nations, including the US, much closer to a renewed military mission there, and to a host of obstacles that will test their ability to secure a nation gripped by Islamist extremism and civil war.
Tensions ran high last week after Fayez Serraj, a little-known Libyan technocrat selected as prime minister in a United Nations peace process, arrived by boat in Tripoli from Tunisia. Western officials hailed his installation in the Libyan capital as a sign that the country’s two-year political divide is finally coming to an end - despite the existence of rival governments in Tripoli and the country’s east.
The US and European allies, including Italy, France and Britain, have made the unity government’s establishment a key precondition for launching twin missions to begin an international stabilization effort and help combat a growing Daesh affiliate there.
Each of those tasks will be strained by tensions among militia factions that western nations hope will form a unified front against terrorist groups and by strong reluctance among European nations to wade into Libya’s chaos - even among those countries most threatened by the Daesh’s growth across the Mediterranean.
The tentative political progress comes as the US moves forward with plans to launch intensified attacks against the Daesh’s Libyan branch, which has up to 8,000 fighters and is the group’s strongest affiliate outside Iraq and Syria.
Planners at the US Africa Command are now developing dozens of targets across Libya that American or European war planes might strike. They range from the coastal city of Sirte, where the terrorist group has established a refuge, to Ajdabiya, Sabratha and the militant stronghold of Derna. US jets have carried out strikes against the group there twice since last fall.
The Pentagon also is seeking to improve coordination between US Special Operations forces and their French and British counterparts, which have established small cells on the ground, seeking in part to line up friendly militias that can take on the terrorist fighters.
Ben Fishman, who was a White House official responsible for Libya earlier in the Obama administration, said the US campaign against the Daesh in Libya is likely to be much more modest in scope than ongoing US and allied operations in Iraq and Syria.
“The wild card is of course if there are connections between Libya and terror threats in Europe,” he said.
Officials at the US Africa Command will also have to contend with the challenges of launching an operation in a region that lacks the same military infrastructure the US has elsewhere in the Middle East.
US officials continue to seek permission from neighbouring countries to launch US flights, which would allow American planes more watch time on surveillance or strike missions. So far, Tunisia and Algeria have declined, meaning that manned and unmanned missions must be launched from military installations in Italy, Spain or Greece, or from as far away as Britain.
The prospect of another western intervention in Libya has divided North Africa. Tunisia is facing increased terrorist threats and is reluctant to attract new attacks. Algeria is categorically opposed to outside involvement. And Egypt is already backing the eastern faction in Libya’s civil war.
But the biggest challenge will likely be divisions among Libya’s myriad armed factions, including militias formed during the 2011 revolution and remnants of former dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s army. Washington hopes to build a coherent force from among those groups to take on the Daesh.
According to one Libyan official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss planning, the US may try to muster forces to attack the Daesh stronghold in Sirte from Misrata, a prosperous city just to the west, and from Ajdabiya, where local militia leader Ebrahim Jathran commands a significant oil-protection force.
But analysts warn that ad hoc western outreach to individual militia groups, many of which have fought one another repeatedly since 2011, could actually intensify factional violence and reduce the odds of national reconciliation.
“I would caution [against] international intervention of this nature, in this form and at this time, without having a coherent plan for these groups to work together,” said Anas Al Gomati, director of the Sadeq Institute, a Libyan think tank. “If they are all fighting one another, how are they going to fight ISIS [Daesh]?”
US officials envision a gradual absorption of militia forces into a new national army or at least a network of state-backed regional or tribal forces.
After months of talks, the US and European and Arab nations have yet to make concrete military commitments to what is known as the Libya International Assistance Mission, potentially undermining the nascent government, which needs to establish its legitimacy and impose order.
Italy has promised to provide at least half of the resources for that effort, which could bring thousands of Italian or other European troops to Tripoli to advise local forces on securing the capital.
But, in a reflection of that European nation’s reluctance to get pulled into a risky overseas campaign, Rome has also laid out a series of conditions for sending troops, including a U.N. Security Council Resolution and - most problematic - adequate security in Tripoli before Italian troops will be deployed.
Karim Mezran, a Libya scholar at the Atlantic Council, said months of talks led by Italy have not yet produced a coherent plan to help Serraj’s would-be administration confront its militant foes.
“It leads us to ask the question I’ve been asking from the beginning: Who’s going to provide the new government the support it requires on the ground?”
US and European officials say their cautious approach will give the new government time to determine and request the right outside help. But they also acknowledge there will be a limited window for helping the Serraj government prove its legitimacy.
Western plans don’t yet appear to take into account the widespread radicalization that has made Libya a hotbed for Islamist groups since 2011.
Defence Secretary Ashton B. Carter recently suggested that Libyans, once unified under a new government, will rise up to expel a largely foreign force. Libyans “don’t like foreigners who come into their territory. That’s what ISIL [Daesh] is,” he said, using another acronym for the Daesh.
While fighters from North Africa and other nations have flocked to join the group’s ranks in Libya, US intelligence officials believe the majority of fighters are Libyan.
Local supporters include marginalised tribesmen, loyalists to the Gaddafi regime, and youths from some of the many terrorist groups that have flourished in Libya since 2011. In western Libya, smugglers and criminal gangs have also fueled the Daesh’s rise.
Claudia Gazzini, senior Libya analyst for the International Crisis Group, said the Daesh retains some appeal among Libyans, many of whom see the group as a lesser evil to militia and other rival factions.
“In the situation Libya is in at the moment, where you have military factions engaging in localised wars, it’s very much a case of survival,” she said.
— Washington Post
