The tension between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has been escalating lately, generating a lot of public interest in the process.
Legal and logistic preparations have been completed in Turkey to undertake military action against Kurdish rebels who have set up bases inside the Iraqi Kurdish region and use them to attack Turkish troops. The last of these attacks was carried out recently by the Kurdish rebel party, and 17 Turkish soldiers were killed. This was preceded by the killing of 13 soldiers in Syrnak, south east of Turkey.
Ankara accuses the PKK, which was established in 1978, of killing more than 30,000 people since 1984 after their bloody campaign for Kurdish self-rule in southeastern Turkey.
The violence reached unprecedented heights since the capture of their leader Abdullah Ocalan in 1999. The PKK fighters use the Qandil Mountains in the Iraqi Kurdistan region to carry out their military operations in southern Turkey.
Turkey also accuses Iraqi Kurdistan of sheltering and arming Kurdish rebels.
Turkey signed an agreement with the former Iraqi regime in 1982, giving the Turkish troops the right to track Kurdish rebels. The Iraqi troops were also allowed to track Iraqi Kurdish rebels inside Turkey.
The current Iraqi government re-activated the 1982 agreement, giving the Turks the right to go into Iraqi soil in matters related to Turkish national security issues, after informing the Iraqi government in advance.
Iraqi Kurdish leaders were unhappy with the new agreement, as it entailed military operations inside their Kurdish region.
Do limited operations carried out by a rebel Kurdish group justify violation of international law and going inside the territories of a neighbouring country in its most vulnerable situation? How does the Turkish parliament interpret its decision? Numerous questions come to mind as the Middle East descends into further instability.
Winner or loser?
It will be difficult to predict the winner, for it will depend on the outcome of the current tense circumstances. If Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan resorts to force, he will lose important achievements for his Justice and Development Party on two levels: the first will be the return of the Turkish military's prowess and the second will be the loss of Kurdish vote for Erdogan's party inside Turkey.
Turkey realises the military incursion into Iraq will add to its burden, especially after the Iraqi government decided to consider the PKK a terrorist organisation.
On the other hand, the strong Turkish military cannot be ignored by Erdogan's government. Hence, small operations depending on precise intelligence will take place, while keeping the door open to bigger incursion options.
Turkey, Syria and Iran are not happy about the privileges Kurds enjoy in Iraq, and this explains the continuous shelling of Kurdish border villages by Iran and the statements issued by the Syrian President Bashar Al Assad while visiting Ankara lately.
This crisis revealed the dire need of Iraq to be one united entity. This makes us hope that Iraqi policy makers will take the security element into account while drawing future policies.
The Kurds need to be a part of a strong Iraq to be protected in the overall sovereignty of the country.
Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.
