Paris: French voters defied expectations on Sunday by throwing ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy out of the race to be the conservatives' nominee for the presidential election and propelling his ex-prime minister Francois Fillon to top spot.
A social conservative with economically liberal ideas, Fillon will face Alain Juppe, another ex-prime minister, in a runoff on Nov. 27 which is likely to produce France's next president in May.
Market analysts say the outcome opens up fresh uncertainty about the result of next year's actual presidential election, potentially increasing a still remote risk that far-right leader Marine Le Pen can win it.
Before that though, Fillon is up against another former prime minister, Alain Juppe in a second round of the primaries on Nov. 27. Juppe has a week to turn around his momentum-sapped campaign and win over the supporters of the other candidates.
With Fillon only six points short of the 50-percent threshold needed in the first round and Sarkozy on his side, it looks a tall order for Juppe.
However, any French voter can take part in the run-off next Sunday, and the views of pollsters and commentators have been much confounded in popular votes worldwide this year - not least Sunday's vote in which Fillon did far better than expected.
At stake is an almost certain place in the second round of next spring's presidential election, pollsters say, with the French left in turmoil under the deeply unpopular President Francois Hollande.
In that decisive poll next May, the conservative challenger would in all likelihood face National Front party leader Marine Le Pen.
A BVA poll in September showed Fillon beating Le Pen by a margin of 61 percent of votes to 39 percent, but recent opinion poll scenarios have not pitted him against her.
With his socially conservative and liberal, pro-business platform, he lacks the broad appeal of the more centrist Juppe, and so arguably increases the perceived risk that Le Pen could take power.
"To some extent, we believe Fillon’s lead introduces additional uncertainty when it comes to the presidential election," said Raphael Brun-Aguerre of JP Morgan in a research note.
A snap poll by Opinionway showed Fillon winning next Sunday's head-to-head contest against Juppe with 56 percent of support, but Juppe was not giving up.
"I believe more than ever that the people of France need to come together to turn the page of a disastrous five-year term that has demeaned our country and to block from power the National Front which would lead us into the worst of adventures," he told his supporters on Sunday night.
Fillon and Juppe have clashed most forcefully over Fillon's proposals to slash the cost of government, most notably by axing 500,000 public sector jobs over five years.
Behind his still-boyish looks and refined demeanor, the 62-year-old Fillon stands out as a hardliner on government spending and liberal economics.
His proposals for market-oriented reforms — including scrapping the 35-hour working week and raising the retirement age — go beyond what his challenger advocates for a country where the state remains a powerful force in the economy, even for the center-right.
"My fellow Frenchmen have told me, everywhere, they want to break away from a bureaucratic system which saps their energy," Fillon, an admirer of the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, told his campaign faithful.
Juppe, who had led the polls for weeks, last week dismissed Fillon's proposal for public sector job cuts as impossible, saying a gentler reduction was needed. Juppe also proposes easing the tax burden on households.
Either way, next year's presidential and legislative elections are shaping up to be another battle of strengths between weakened mainstream parties and rising populist forces.
The ruling Socialists and their allies will hold their own primaries in January. Hollande, whose popularity ratings are abysmal, has yet to announce whether he will stand again.
Some commentators were saying on Monday that if Fillon wins the conservative ticket over Juppe, the left could find new impetus as a space opens up for them in the center.
Sarkozy said he will vote for Fillon in second round of primaries.
“I want to say that these are very provisional results,” the election's organiser Thierry Solere told reporters.
Organisers of the Les Republicains party and its centre-right allies had warned ahead of the vote that partial results may not be representative of final results, with votes in rural areas being counted first.
Who is Francois Fillon?
Until a few weeks ago, Fillon was the third man in the race, trailing in the polls.
Now Francois Fillon has emerged as the landslide winner in what was a vital night for French politics. A former prime minister, he has surged ahead in the first round of Les Republicains primaries, emerging as the front runner in the second round next weekend.
The 62-year-old served as French Prime Minister for five years under Sarkozy, so he carries political baggage. He was PM through the global financial crisis. His rival candidate for the runoff has made much of this. Politically, he sat just to the left of Sarkozy who nudged further to the right in his campaign in an attempt to steal votes from the far-right.
An admirer of Margaret Thatcher, Fillon's policies on security and immigration are less right-wing than those of Sarkozy. He has said he wants to cut up to 600,000 public sector jobs and scrap the country's 35-hour working week. On Brexit, he has called for a quick divorce and, if he becomes President he'd be a key EU leader in the negotiations with the UK.
What are the Les Republicains Primaries?
Rather like the US primaries, France has now introduced elections for the public to choose the leaders of its political parties ahead of Presidential elections. No longer are leaders decided on in closed rooms but by the voting public. The centre-left Socialists have been doing it for several years. The centre-right Les Republicains have done it for the first time this weekend.
How does it work?
Anyone on the electoral register can vote in any of the primaries. However, they must pay a registration fee and pledge an allegiance to the party. For Les Republicains, they must pay €2 and pledge their support for the party's centre-right values.
The rules stipulate that if one single candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, then he or she wins outright on the first round and becomes the party's presidential candidate. If not, the top two candidates go to a second round. That's what happened on Sunday night. The second round is this coming weekend.
Who were the main candidates and what was the big upset?
The three front-runners were former President Nicolas Sarkozy, his former prime minister Francois Fillon and another former prime minister Alain Juppe.
The polls up until just a few days ago had suggested that Sarkozy and Juppe would be the top two heading into the second round. But they were wrong. Fillon was far and away the winner, securing more than 44% of the vote.
He and Mr Juppe head into the second round. And the shock: Mr Sarkozy is out; his political career is now over.
What happens next?
There will be a run-off this coming weekend between Juppe and Fillon. If this weekend's results are replicated, Fillon will win. Sarkozy has vowed to support Fillon.
The Socialists will hold their primaries in January. But, under incumbent President Francois Hollande, the left's popularity has plummeted. So it's likely that their candidate will not make it past the first round of the presidential campaign.
That, in turn, would mean the presidency would be a fight between a centre-right candidate (probably Mr Fillon) and a far-right candidate, of which there is just one: Marine Le Pen. In a traditionally socialist country, that's certainly a demonstration of a shifting political landscape.
