In 2010, tablets bridged the gap between smartphones and laptops, offering consumers a device that combined the processing power of a small notebook with the portability of a smartphone. Fast-forward four years and the tablet category has evolved to a cannibalistic stage where it has begun eating into both the smartphone and laptop markets — the very two categories that the tablet initially bridged.
The gradual shift in customer preference from smartphones to phablets and the slow demise of laptops have been expected for a few years. However, 2014 will be the year when these prophecies become a reality.
The Deloitte 2014 Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions, released in January, estimate that global sales of smartphones, tablets, PCs, TV sets and video game consoles will exceed $750 billion (about Dh2.75 trillion) in 2014, up $50 billion from last year. Among smart devices, the tablet segment seems to be one of the most interesting categories this year.
PCs: 1977 – 2014 (?)
Tablets are set to replace laptops in the first quarter of 2014 with convertibles making it possible. Canalys, a market research and analysis firm covering the tech market, stated late last year that tablets will almost out ship all other PC form factors combined, making up 50 per cent of the PC market in 2014, forecasting 285 million units to ship in 2014, growing to 396 million units in 2017. For those PC loyalists who still have hope and continue to fight the evolution — notebooks and laptops are estimated to account for 33 per cent of the total PCs shipped this year, while desktop PCs will account for 17 per cent.
However, while the category is poking at the soon-to-be endangered laptop, it should also keep an eye out on phablets, which — when they’re done with smartphones — might turn their attention to tablets.
Phablets: 2011 – 2XXX
When these devices first entered the market, people with four-inch smartphones wondered why anyone would ever prefer these mutant devices while swiping through their eight-inch tablets. With phablets right in the middle at an average six inches, most of those people’s tablets have had dead batteries for months while their four-inch smartphones are long gone.
Phablets are here to stay, and surprisingly, no one finds them ridiculous anymore. Statistics indicate that phablets (those with a screen size smaller that 8.5 inches) will outperform traditional tablets (those with a screen size larger than 8.5 inches) by the first quarter of 2014.
By the end of the first quarter this year, Deloitte expects that the base of compact tablets will amount to 165 million units when compared to the traditional tablet base of 160 million units and that phablet shipments will represent a quarter of smartphones sold or 300 million units this year. That is double the 2013 volume and ten times 2012 sales.
Additionally, the category — made famous by the Samsung Galaxy Note and currently the HTC One Max — will benefit greatly if rumours of the Apple iPhone phablet’s May release proves true.
Since analysts at the research firm International Data Corporation estimate tablet shipment growth to slow to 22 per cent next year to 271 million units when compared to 2013, this year is pivotal for the industry.
Furthermore, annual market growth is set to slow to single-digit percentages by 2017, therefore successful innovations in design and technology proposed by manufacturers and developers this year will pave the way for the industry’s future.
