Has iPhone sales growth reached its peak?

Dubai: When Apple announces its second quarter fiscal earnings late on Tuesday (Wednesday morning in the UAE), all eyes will be on iPhone’s sales figures.

The numbers are expected to show the first year-on-year decline since the iPhone’s release in 2007.

The iconic smartphone is showing signs of reaching its saturation point, according to industry experts.

Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said in the January conference call that sales of iPhones will decline in the fiscal quarter compared to 61.2 million a year earlier.

According to Statista Data Journalist Felix Richter, analysts are modelling iPhone sales of roughly 51 million units, down 17 per cent year-over-year. KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-known Apple analyst and being a good reputation for being accurate, said in its research note that Apple could sell as few as 190 million units this year under a “worst-case scenario” — fewer than the 193 million it sold in 2014. In the best-case scenario, he said that it could sell 205 million iPhones, still well below the 232 million it sold in 2015.

Kuo was the first analyst to reveal that Apple will make a transition from 4.7-inch screen to 5.5-inch screen and gave full details of the iPhone 6S four months ahead of the launch; revealed the iPad Pro 9.7-inch and the lower-priced iPhone SE.

Despite the muted outlook for 2016, Kuo remains positive about the iPhone in the longer term. He expects iPhone sales to bounce back strongly in 2017, when, according to his predictions, Apple will release a significantly redesigned version of the popular smartphone — iPhone 8 rather than iPhone 7S.

Daniel Gleeson, senior analyst at IHS Technology, said Apple is expected to sell 215 million units this year compared to 232 million units last year,” he said.

Kuo said that Apple will be the only major smartphone player to witness a decline while Samsung’s shipments will rise by a mere one per cent but Chinese players like Oppo will increase shipments by 51 per cent to 74 million, Vivi by 45 per cent to 64 million and Huawei by 15 per cent to 122 million units.

Even in China, fake Apple stores are closing due to low demand, Reuters reported — with customers switching to cheaper local brands such as Huawei.

With lacklustre demand for the new iPhone SE, Kuo said that the iPhone 7 will not be a blockbuster like the iPhone 6 launched in 2014.

He said that iPhone 7 will not have many “attractive selling points” and is almost identical to the iPhone 6S but without the headphone jack. The plus side is that it has wireless charging, better battery life and camera.

Kuo said that the iPhone 8 in 2017 will have an all glass chassis, no home button and a curved OLED display.