It was a bit surprising, yet welcoming, to read the words “Abu Dhabi stocks enter bull market” as a headline in the paper. While, it’s exciting news, the words bull market confused me as just a week prior the talk was of a protracted cautious bear market.

While I caught myself wondering how did we go from a bear to a bull market overnight, my head was flooded with all of the mixed messages I receive on how the market is actually performing. Over dinner, you hear stories of alleged massive layoffs, yet the actual data says, that in February, hiring increased as did the Purchasing Managers Index, which rebounded across the UAE and Saudi Arabia from a 46-month low in January.

Again over dinner, I listened to people — who were unrelated to the industry — adamantly declare that hotel occupancy is off by 40 per cent, which doesn’t even make sense as the hotels would nearly be a ghost town if that was the case. And they’re buzzing with activity.

Then the next day the CEOs of several hotel groups shared that their occupancy rates in Dubai are 80 per cent plus, which is strong by global standards. Granted the RevPAR (revenue per available room) has been under some pressure.

Maybe I should consider changing who I have dinner with in order to get a more accurate market picture. But I bet your fellow diners also speculate about the negative. The confusion between reality and what’s talked about is vast.

This raises the question, who do you listen to?

I want to share a story from the research I did when writing ‘Leadership Dubai Style’ to give you an approach to determine if what you hear is truth or fiction.

My quest began with an exhaustive literature review about Dubai in order to have a factual base. I sifted through doctoral dissertations, books about Dubai’s history and popular writings on the city.

The topics ranged from architectural insights, sports, and economics to social issues, including people’s personal experiences living in Dubai. I even delved into popular novels to get an insight into what leaders were doing.

Before you listen to what others have to say, read what credible sources write in order to have a factual base.

I backed this review with 200 “qualitative” interviews with people who had a front-row seat to the developments in Dubai. The interviewees were split into three groupings: Emiratis who contributed to the growth of the city (you could say they were “pillars of growth”), Emiratis who saw how the leaders led but who weren’t in the inner circle, and expatriates who built companies in Dubai, both privately and state-owned enterprises.

During the interviews, I was mindful that these were peoples’ opinions, much like hearing what somebody says over dinner. So I had to separate fact from fiction.

There can be a big difference between what really happened and what people heard happened, so I focused on two sifting elements: recurrence and reference.

For recurrence, I was keen to know: Did just one person say this or multiple people? I was answering, “Was the habit practiced by multiple leaders or was it a one-off instance? And, was it passed from one generation to the next?”

While the recurrence was important, reference received a disproportionate weighting. This is how you determine if you can trust what somebody says as fact or a subjective opinion.

Given that the Gulf is historically an oral culture, and that there are gaps in time and variation of facts based on who shared the information, it was imperative to consider the quality of the information and the proximity/relationship of the source to the insights they shared.

To determine their reliability, I considered the integrity of any related anecdotes shared and the quality of the balance of the interview. Basically, I was answering, “Does he know what he is saying? Can his information be relied on or is it merely an opinion?”

This approach should not be limited to the research used when writing a book. It’s how you can determine if what you hear over dinner is fact that you should build an opinion around, or if it’s merely an exaggerated conversation to garner attention.

You have a responsibility to make decisions based upon accurate information. So when a person only heard (a story) but doesn’t actually know the source, ignore the comment.

After all, what you hear shapes what you believe and that will manifest in how you lead. Lead accurately and positively.

The writer is a CEO coach and author, including of “Leadership Dubai Style”. Contact him at tsw@tommyweir.com.