There is so much talk about renewable energy in the last few years, one would think that it is about to take over the role of all other energy sources very soon. But when renewable energy is the oldest source man ever knew, it is amazing how little it has achieved in overall energy supply and how little it is likely to achieve in the future.

No energy specialist is against renewable energy or in favour of only the other major sources of energy such as fossil fuels. On the contrary whatever our position is we have to recognize that renewable energy has enormous advantages not only as a source of energy but in protecting the environment and reducing reliance on other depleteable sources.

Sometimes renewable energy solves logistical problems, especially in supplying rural areas and small communities. Even in large cities and towns, generating electricity by burning municipal waste has great advantages in cleaning up the environment and getting rid of most of the hazards of waste disposal by other means.

The way world energy needs are growing, all sources are welcome and no source will be sufficient by itself.

The International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) is just about beginning to achieve some of these aims on a global scale as it promotes rapid transition towards the widespread and sustainable use of renewable energy.

Irena was formally established in January 2009 in Bonn and by April, 77 states signed its statute. When governments' ratification is done, the final membership and shape of Irena will become clear.

Countries from all continents with the exception of North America are intent on joining, and it is surprising those big energy consumers such as the US, the UK, Russia and China are so far absent. The United Arab Emirates is trying to host the Agency Secretariat but, I believe, it is going to have strong competition from other countries, especially those that are more advanced in the use of renewable energy and in the manufacture and engineering of systems for the purpose.

But the UAE has the advantage of a government whose support for renewable energy is well demonstrated by the investment it is making in its Masdar project among others.

However, being also a major oil and gas producer may make other members reluctant to agree to base the Secretariat in Abu Dhabi unless they are given incentives far above other locations. But wherever the secretariat may eventually be, it is essential that it attracts quality officers to guide the Agency Council in making the right decisions.

For Irena to succeed, I believe it should be modest about expectations even in the long run. According to the IEA, in 1973 the share of renewables in total world energy supplies was 10.6 per cent and in 2006 is more or less the same and it is expected to be 10.8 per cent in 2030.

These exclude hydro energy, which is also hovering around 2 per cent.

In absolute terms however, renewable energy use has increased from about 648 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 1973 to 1,186 mtoe in 2006, or a rate of 1.9 per cent a year. It is also expected to be 1,914 mtoe in 2030 or a growth rate of 2 per cent a year.

Even with further government subsidies and tax breaks to reduce carbon emissions, the results are not expected to be very different. Some renewable energy options are still very expensive and their cost may be prohibitive except for rich countries.

Moreover, the above projections were made when oil prices were over $100 (Dh367) a barrel and now that oil prices have gone down and the world is faced with financial and economic crises of huge magnitude, I believe these projections are now more uncertain.

In any case, I hope to see many renewable projects in the region succeed. The UAE will hopefully set a good example to other countries in the region by implementing such projects soon.

- Saadallah Al Fathi is former head, Energy Studies Department in Opec Secretariat.