We are closing out a very special year ... 2014 marks the centennial of the birth of commercial flight. Throughout the year we have been celebrating the story of a 23-minute flight across Tampa Bay, Florida, on January 1, 1914, that changed our world immeasurably for the better.
It all began as a partnership between an aircraft builder, Thomas Benoist, a pilot, Tony Jannus, and an entrepreneur, Percival Fansler, who saw a commercial opportunity in the technology of flight. But more importantly, there was a fourth man, Abram Pheil, who purchased the first ticket for a scheduled flight. He paid a handsome price: $400 (Dh1,469). In today’s money, that is the equivalent of $9,500.
Since that day, the world has caught the flying bug. The airline industry has grown from a single aircraft, one route and a lone passenger, to a global network of 50,000 routes carrying 3.3 billion passengers. We estimate that about 1 per cent of global GDP is spent on air travel. It generates $644 billion in tourism receipts and carries 53.5 million tonnes of cargo worth some $7.3 trillion. The industry supports some 58 million jobs worldwide with a total economic footprint of $2.4 trillion.
And airline investors and employees are starting to see the fruits of this effort: in 2015, we see airlines making a collective $25 billion net profit. That’s up from $19.9 billion in 2014, and $10.6 billion in 2013. But while $25 billion may sound like a lot of money, it is distributed over a fragmented industry with hundreds of players.
Some airlines are making sustainable returns and others are struggling. Over half of the profits, some $13.2 billion, are expected to be generated by airlines in North America. Airlines in the Middle East are expected to make a profit of $1.6 billion, which equates to nearly $8 per passenger flight.
Of course, financial challenges are but one aspect of the industry agenda. Our top priority is, and always will be, safety. This year has been marred by the two terrible tragedies — Malaysia Airlines’ MH370 (lost) and MH17 (gunned down). And, as with any accident, we will learn lessons from each in order to make the industry safer.
Even while MH370 remains lost, there has been a desire to look at how aircraft are currently tracked and what improvements could be put in place. International Air Transport Association (IATA) led a cross-industry task force, which submitted its report to the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) at the beginning of December. The report includes a set of performance criteria for aircraft tracking.
It recommends that airlines evaluate their current tracking capabilities against the performance criteria and close any gaps within a 12-month time frame.
Airlines are taking the issue very seriously. Some already exceed the report’s suggested performance criteria. For others, closing the gap may take more than a 12-month timeline for every aircraft. It is also important to remember the inescapable truth of MH370 that the transponder stopped working.
Redesigning the aircraft’s fail-safe systems to make sure that transponders cannot be shut off is well beyond the near-term focus of the task force. It is a similar situation to the sealing of cockpit doors after 9/11, which took several years to complete.
The case of MH17 was an outrage. Civil aircraft should never be military targets. But it highlights a new reality that we must deal with. Powerful weapons are now in the hands of non-state entities and this poses a risk to aircraft.
ICAO is leading a task force on how to improve the sharing of security information. Airlines are very skilled at making operational risk assessments. But in the case of overflying conflict zones, they need security information that is clear, timely and unequivocal. The system works today, but clearly there are gaps that must be filled.
We are also calling on ICAO to work within the UN framework to implement the responsible design, manufacture and deployment of weapons with anti-aircraft capability into international law. There is a precedent. It is done for various forms of weaponry including chemical weapons, landmines, and biological weapons. Achieving this will take time, but the goal must be pursued.
Despite these tragedies, the industry’s overall safety performance remains at a very high level. More than 100,000 flights operate safely every day. Looking at Western-built jets, over the first nine months of the year, the industry had one accident for every 4.5 million flights. And for IATA members the rate was one accident for every 6.7 million flights. Passengers should remain confident that flying is safe.
As passenger air travel enters its second century, the message is simple. Without aviation, our world would be very different, less connected and much less prosperous. At no other time in human history has mobility been so accessible — or so safe.
And with passenger numbers set to more than double in the next 20 years, it is clear that the next century of air travel is poised to be no less dramatic than the first.
The writer is IATA’s Director-General and CEO,
