Davos: UN climate talks will "probably not" agree an ambitious deal this year unless the economy improves and voters press for action, said India's top climate official Shyam Saran.
"If the economic and financial crisis continues or even worsens during the coming year then the kind of ambitious response that the world expects is probably not going to happen," said India's special envoy on climate change, on the fringes of a business and policy summit in Davos.
"But if the situation improves...if there is much more public opinion pressure on governments domestically ... that remains to be seen."
Concerns
The financial crisis had contributed to deadlock at last month's climate talks, by heightening concerns that climate laws would drive jobs overseas, for example to the developing world, if they faced less onerous targets, said Saran.
Saran hinted at compromise, however, on a major stumbling block in Copenhagen last month — but the US first must agree to make its proposed targets to curb carbon emissions enforceable under international law.
The US never ratified the existing Kyoto Protocol, whose present commitments expire in 2012, and time is running out for the world to agree and then ratify a successor pact. The US has said it will not sign up to an extended Kyoto Protocol, preferring a new agreement.
India may consider a separate instrument, provided the US agreed to make its targets binding, rather than just a binding review of these targets — a position that the US preferred in Copenhagen according to Saran.
That is the legal format of Kyoto, which applies carbon-cutting targets to rich countries and includes legal sanctions if they fail to meet these.
"If the US only has a problem with the [Kyoto] label but not with the substance then that's a different issue," he said referring to India's opposition.
