As I dust off my snow boots and desperately hunt for my largely unused scarves and hats, I join the annual trek up the mountain to what will be one of the coldest Davos meetings in recent memory. But while the weather may be a talking point, the real issue will be the shocking prospect of the Trump presidency becoming reality, while the Davos meeting is underway. On Friday it will be hard to concentrate on the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum as Trump takes his oath in faraway Washington but with all too immediate consequences for all of us.
His isolationist rhetoric, the bizarre policy flip-flops, and the failure to create a coherent team from his cabinet members all mean that the Trump presidency will be profoundly different from any other. He simply refuses to fit it into the existing international consensus that is epitomised by Davos, and runs through vital global bodies such as the United Nations or the World Trade Organisation, as well as the complex web of treaties that have allowed us to manage our global affairs for decades. Trump’s arrival in office is a highly destabilising event that creates huge uncertainty that can only be damaging. His startlingly incompetent press conference, his failed rebuttal of allegations of Russian links, and the troubled Senate confirmation hearings which are only a few examples of what will become a wild roller coaster ride.
This means that when the delegates in Davos sit and listen to US President Barack Obama’s outgoing Secretary of State John Kerry, we will be getting the final swansong of an administration that believed in the inclusive management of the world’s affairs, despite any failures to deliver. The assembled politicians, business leaders and social movers will rise to give Kerry a very warm send-off largely because they will be thinking with appalled horror of the next few years of Trump nominees taking the place of the much more polished and proficient Kerry.
But Davos will not just be about the Trump nightmare — a very different vision of the world will be on show when the Chinese president addresses the Annual Meeting. The Chinese have been building their own international strategy over many years, currently flying under the enigmatic name: One Belt One Road. They want an approach to trade and investment that focuses on China’s interests, and they do not worry too much about the rest of the world. Part of this overall Chinese vision is Beijing’s insistence on dominating the South China Sea, where there is an obvious tension with the US-led forces backing the Japanese and Koreans. It is not at all clear if Trump plans to walk away from this confrontation and leave Asia to the Asians, which would be very similar to what he has said he wants to do in Syria where he has ruled out getting involved.
This year’s theme for Davos is Responsive and Responsible Leadership, which Professor Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, sums up as “leaders must understand that we are living in a world marked by uncertainty, volatility and deep transformational changes. It requires courage and commitment to listen and honestly explain the breadth and complexity of issues, to proactively generate solutions and to take action based on core values”.
This year’s Davos will be dominated by how to make this happen in a Trump-Putin-Xi world. It will be interesting to see if the Chinese can articulate their ideas, or if Kerry lay down a marker that defines these principles despite the incoming Trump presidency, or if Europeans (British and Continental) can rise above their local squabbles to offer some wisdom.
