New York: US economic experts expect payroll growth in 2010 to reach about one million before an eagerly awaited report on jobs on Friday, and also point to further improvement in the labour market this year.
A projected 140,000 gain in December payrolls is the median forecast of 61 economists ahead of the report from the US Labour Department. Unemployment is expected to have eased to 9.7 per cent from 9.8 per cent. Other reports may show faster growth at US factories and service industries last month.
Bigger employment and income gains may help boost the retail sector. However, even with labour market improvements in 2010, it will take years to make up for the 8.4 million jobs lost during the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009.
"Things are improving but it's gradual momentum," said Michelle Meyer, senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research in New York. "So far the jobs recovery has been disappointing."
Estimates for the increase in December payrolls ranged from 95,000 to 215,000 after a 39,000 rise a month earlier and a 172,000 gain in October. Private payrolls, excluding government agencies, rose by 155,000 last month after a 50,000 November gain, the survey showed. Including the projected increase for December, companies added about 1.3 million workers last year, the most since 2006.
Indications the economy is improving and will create conditions for further employment growth helped fuel gains in the stock market last year, while at the same time companies reported stronger earnings.
Even with the pick-up in hiring, the jobless rate has shown few signs of declining. December is forecast to be the 17th month in which unemployment has been 9.5 per cent or higher. For all of 2010, joblessness likely averaged 9.7 per cent, the worst year since 1982.
US states and municipalities with growing budget gaps are cutting spending and reducing headcount. Florida may cut five per cent of its state work force to save costs, Governor-elect Rick Scott said in early December.
A struggling labour market is also why President Barack Obama negotiated an accord with Congress to pass a bill extending all Bush-era tax cuts for two years and continues expanded unemployment insurance benefits.
- 9.7%: Expected US unemployment rate
- 8.4m: Jobs lost during the 18-month recession
