There can’t be many people who haven’t found themselves wondering whether they should have jumped on the Bitcoin wagon by now. As the price bobbles higher and higher, many of us have probably looked at the growth in value over the past year and wondered whether we could have foreseen such an increase.
While warnings continue to echo out from banks, traders, and investment houses, the rewards for buying into Bitcoin at the right moment would have been incredible.
The world of blockchains and cryptocurrencies prompted me to think about how, in leadership, some decisions are largely made on instinct, and how this instinct can look rather like genius if the situation goes a certain way. It is the same with investments: those people who foresaw Bitcoin’s rise and bought in 18 months ago, now might look like wealthier, wiser versions of themselves.
While people might point to wobbly foundations and shaky fundamentals, those who bought in at the right moment look — at least for now — all the cleverer for it.
You can see parallels in the business world. Right now, for example, there is a growing scramble among global bricks-and-mortar retailers about how to combat the market threat of online giants like Amazon and Alibaba. Some companies, which saw the way the market was going — with consumers increasingly, rapidly switching to online commerce — responded equally rapidly and focused on their own internet-focused response.
Others, who refused to react so impulsively, are now looking increasingly uncomfortable in the face of growing, monolith-scale online retailers who have fingers in different business pies. Those who reacted early look inspired by comparison with their plodding rivals.
It is interesting then that the early-adopters look to have won in a business sense, their early decision to make a move might have been undertaken on nothing more scientific than good instinct. While many businesses now benefit from the rise of big data and endless reams of clinically-detailed understanding of their own operations, decisions of great importance can still come down to the individual gut instinct of the leader.
Good instincts
This is as it has always been for leaders. Instincts, and critically good instincts, have always been a key facet of every successful leader’s story. In retrospect, they are easy to spot — the moment when consumers were ready for the iPhone; when they would crave the utility of a microwave; when they finally “needed” a social media platform to keep them connected with every person they ever met.
At the time, however, the launch of a new product or the entry into a new market was likely based as much on an instinct of what could happen as on hard business data or researched reasoning.
The difference now is that businesses operate in a globally-focused market, where customers can be anywhere on the planet and news of business decisions spreads in seconds. Leaders, as a result, are under increased scrutiny, and potentially more pressure, to utilise their good instincts for the benefit of their shareholders, employees and consumers.
While the pressure is higher, it doesn’t necessarily demand a different leadership approach. Such decisions should still come down to a leader who has the decision-making capacity, the decisiveness, and the self-belief to enact their vision for the company by setting a course and following it through.
They must be bold and forthright, with a clear idea of what they hope their decisions will result in.
Naturally, this does not remove the element of risk and the threat of failure from the equation. However, this is part of the leadership challenge too.
History does not record the social media giants that never were, or the life-changing inventions that fizzled out before they made a difference.
However, a good leader should not concern themselves with this potential. Ultimately no great business leap is made by playing it safe, any more than an investor makes a fortune without risking the potential losses of a large investment.
The writer is Chief Executive of Knowledge Group.
