In his recent speech to the European Union (EU) committee, Michael Barnier, the EU Chief Brexit negotiator said: “Brexit will have serious repercussions, human consequences, economic, social and political consequences. It’s worth bearing in mind that the lack of agreement will have even more serious repercussions.”
He also tweeted — “Our watchword will be: Citizens first!”
Article 50. It is a topic of debate the world is eagerly awaiting to see the long-term results of — and one that will potentially have significant repercussions on global mobility. So what can we expect now that Article 50 has been triggered?
In the wake of the pro-Brexit vote, we haven’t seen much change in terms of non-European high net worth individuals seeking UK citizenship — and I believe this trend will continue following Article 50. This is for one key reason — those seeking to become a UK citizen from outside of Europe are typically not pursuing it for access to the European Free Trade Agreement.
They are applying because of employment or investment opportunities or due to their desire to physically live in the Britain. For example, an American citizen who has moved for his job to the UK, and has since then raised a family and settled in London, will be inclined to apply for UK citizenship.
In this case, having access to the EU is a perk of the citizenship, but not the driving force behind seeking to acquire it. Additionally, non-European passport holders pursuing an additional citizenship will still view the UK as viable and attractive, regardless of what happens after Article 50, as it will continue to be a stable safe haven and prime location for real estate investment.
The UK citizen application process is also by no means easy, as one needs to hold legal residence for a minimum of six years and satisfy certain physical presence requirements, so seeking citizenship just for the sake of having access to the EU doesn’t make sense.
For European citizens however, the story will be very different. While they still could enjoy moving freely within the EU following the Brexit vote, formal regulations will eventually be enacted to restrict this freedom after Article 50. When entering the UK, passports will need to be shown by Europeans, just as they are by any other non-UK passport holder.
This will also create a host of implications for European businesses operating within the UK, who will face a range of new regulations which may force them to return home.
And, lastly, for born and bred UK citizens, Article 50 will impact them the most. They are likely to bear the brunt of this situation as they may end up losing unrestricted access to 31 countries. There are also a host of other limitations that may follow.
For example, with approximately 1.2 million British citizens living in other EU states, their rights to work, health care, property ownership and marriage could also change. At Henley & Partners, we have already seen an increase in the number of British citizens inquiring about citizenship-by-investment in other EU member states, such as Malta and Cyprus, since the Brexit vote.
Other predictions can also be made if promises of the Leave Campaign are deployed following Article 50. Henley & Partners produced a new index known as the Henley & Partners — Kochenov Quality of Nationality Index (QNI) shortly before the Brexit referendum, which objectively ranked the quality of nationalities worldwide. Using the index as a basis, we compared the UK before and after Brexit, based on the promises made by the Leave Campaigners with respect to changing the UK’s immigration policies.
Post Brexit and basing our assumption on UK reaching a similar agreement on immigration to other European countries that are not EU members (eg, Switzerland and Norway) and having free trade agreements with the European Union, we foresee the UK plummeting on the QNI from the 11th spot to the 30th place. And, if UK’s exit from the EU bloc is anything less than orderly, then that would trigger more uncertainty for citizens and there will be further disarray at borders and serious air traffic disruption.
In Brexit’s aftermath, and with Article 50 triggered, there is a growing indication that British citizens are exploring other options such as a securing an alternative citizenship, which would enable them to maintain the full set of rights given to EU nations.
After all, restricted mobility, economic uncertainty and possible changes in existing UK rights do trigger the need to have a backup plan.
The wrier is a private client specialist in residence and citizenship planning and Managing Partner of Henley & Partners’ Dubai office.
