The sharp and sustained population growth rates in Bahrain have numerous economic implications. Last week, officials released results of the census for 2010 compared to 2001. It showed among other things, Bahrain's total population increasing at an average rate of 7.3 per cent over the past nine years.

At the very least, this level of population increase must be matched with similar economic growth rates, if only to maintain prosperity levels in the country. Yet official statistics suggest gross domestic product (GDP) rising by 4.3 per cent in the third quarter of this year. In fact, the Economic Development Board (EDB), in turn sanctioned to develop and implement strategies, projects a real GDP growth rate of 4 per cent for entire 2010.

Sadly, the mismatch between population and economic growth rates undermines the country's middle class. In reality, complaints abound in Bahrain about a diminishing middle class.

Growth

Surprisingly, the total population stood at 1.2 million in 2010, up from 651,000 in 2001, thereby showing an extraordinary rise of 90 per cent in a span of nine years. By comparison, Bahrain's total population grew by an average of 28 per cent from 1991 to 2001. Only a few years ago, the understanding was that Bahrain's total population hovers around 750,000.

However, other local observers feel that the country could not sustain this level of population growth in a relatively short period. The costs include worsening levels of population density. To be sure, already Bahrain is in the list of top ten territories with the highest population statistics. The list includes Singapore, Hong Kong, Vatican City, Malta and Bangladesh.

And since independence in 1971, foreign nationals make up the majority of Bahrain's population. Put differently, Bahrain has joined a small of number of countries in which nationals comprise a minority in their own homeland. This list includes fellow Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait.

More specifically, foreign nationals constituted 54 per cent of the population this year, up from 38 per cent in 2001. Authorities tend to see a rise as evidence of economic development requirements given that foreign nationals happen to be chiefly responsible for the trend. This argument is sustained by the fact that almost 90 per cent of all foreign nationals fall within the age bracket of 15 to 64. Clearly, this suggests that the expatriates are in Bahrain to work.

Competition

Nevertheless, this level of representation poses problems with regard to competition for jobs with locals. Suffice it to say, official statistics put the unemployment rate at 3.7 per cent, but other sources put it higher.

The discrepancy relates to the fact that Bahrain's Labour Ministry officials apply rigid standards by limiting the jobless status to individuals actively seeking employment opportunities.

Other statistics show 32 per cent of locals are below 15 years of age. As such, many of these are projected in the job market as seeking employment opportunities and meeting their expectations with regard to the nature of work and compensation. On a positive note, the statistics should help the authorities, notably EDB, develop economic policies and programmes based on hard facts. For instance, Bahraini legislators would most likely use the fresh figures to allocate a sizable amount of fiscal year 2011-12 to certain ministries like health and education.

Another area bound to receive stronger than usual appropriations would most likely be infrastructure developments, notably road development.

The draft for fiscal year 2011-12 is expected to be among the first pieces of legislation debated by the new parliament due to convene this month following parliamentary elections in October.

 

The writer is a Member of Parliament in Bahrain.