Long journey ahead for Al Baradei's presidential plans

The moment long anticipated by the political opposition in Egypt came with the arrival of Dr Mohammad Al Baradei in the country. A warm public reception was held in his honour at the Cairo airport on February 19, as though he was a knight in shining armour.

This time, Al Baradei arrived in his homeland not as the former director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency but as a new serious presidential candidate, in a move regarded by many analysts as dropping a bombshell on the political scene, which has been stagnant over the past decade.

Abdul Rahman Yousuf, organiser of a grassroots campaign in support of Al Baradei, told Weekend Review: "We had a large public reception for Dr Al Baradei, where representatives from all governorates of Egypt, the majority of political movements and excited young people were present. This campaign mainly involves common people as we have not coordinated with any political parties so far."

Following reports last December of his intention to run for the country's highest executive position in the 2011 election, there have been many voices of support for Al Baradei, mainly from the political opposition and intellectual elite in Egypt and youths who are part of the political parties or opposition movements.

Ayman Salama, a 22-year-old student of the American University in Cairo and member of the Baradei 2011 support group on Facebook, told Weekend Review that a respected international figure such as Al Baradei participating in the presidential race is a big threat to the grip on power by Egypt's ruling party. "It is our moment to stop being passive regarding the future of our country. As young people we have to jump into the political field ..."

The 67-year-old Al Baradei made headlines after recent statements hinting at his willingness to be a contender for the post of president, which led to a campaign supporting him and optimism of new democratic outlook in the political horizon.

Although he said many times that he has yet to explore his willingness to participate in the upcoming presidential election, that didn't stop intense debates on his candidacy in the past two months.

He declared in a statement issued by his office in Vienna last November that the subject of running for the presidency came as a surprise to him.

"Like any Egyptian, I follow events at home, of course. But I had announced my intention not to engage in public life again, especially because my work in the past 12 years has been difficult and my wife and I wanted to finally spend some peaceful time together," he said.

Pressure from the people who asked him to run for the 2011 elections started escalating after Al Baradei announced he would not be seeking a fourth term as director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Apparently, that made him consider running for the presidential elections.

However, he has underlined the condition of a written assurance from the Egyptian government to guarantee integrity of the electoral process. In an interview with CNN, he said: "I will study the possibility of running as a presidential candidate in Egypt if there is some kind of written guarantee that the electoral process will be free and fair."

Despite 2005 amendments to Article 79 of the constitution, which specify the election of a president in a free poll instead of the previous referendum system, many commentators believe that Al Baradei's plan is likely to be derailed before it ever gets off the ground because of Egypt's election laws.

Jamal Zahran, an independent MP and professor of economics and political science at Suez Canal University, insists that without changes to articles 76, 77 and 88, competitive elections will be impossible.

There are several hurdles for Al Baradei's nomination, as Article 76 stipulates that candidates must be members of the High Committee of any existing party for at least a year before the presidential election and the party must have 5 per cent of the seats in Egypt's two assemblies.

The other option is to run as an independent but even that is difficult under the present articles, which demand that a presidential candidate secure the backing of 250 elected members of parliament, including at least 65 from the lower house, 25 from the upper house and 10 from municipal councils — all of which are dominated by the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), he said.

In a recent three-part interview with the independent Egyptian newspaper Al Shorouk, Al Baradei called for the removal of various constitutional and legal barriers, insisting on the need for a real and equal opportunity for everyone, regardless of party or personal considerations.

Before thinking about elections, he refuses to enter a system that even denies him the right to candidacy, he added.

"I demand a peaceful action to change the constitution, as there is no parliamentary system in the world that denies a person the right to run as an independent. I looked at the French constitution. It states that to run as an independent one must receive 500 votes from local councils, out of a total of 45,000, meaning less than 1 per cent. I reviewed the American, Chilean and the Senegalese [ones], conducting a study [of constitutions] from east and west, north and south and didn't find what we have in Egypt," he told Al Shorouk.

The 2011 presidential election is different not only because it will be only the second multi-candidate presidential election in Egypt's history but also because the main candidate and incumbent president of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, has not stated whether he will enter the fray or not.

There has been speculation in the media about Mubarak bequeathing power to son Jamal. Although both father and son have repeatedly dismissed any such possibility, it opens the door for other names to be suggested to take his place.

Besides Al Baradei, names of other prominent figures have also been cited as possible candidates. They include Amr Mousa, the Secretary-General of the Arab League, Ahmad Zewail, the Nobel prize-winning scientist, and the country's Chief of Intelligence Omar Sulaiman.

Mousa, 73, gained huge popularity among Egyptians and Arabs for his stand on issues such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and Iraq, even warning Washington that it would open the "gates of hell" if the 2003 invasion of Iraq went ahead.

The Secretary-General of the Arab League confirmed in an interview that he appreciates his public nomination. "The confidence expressed by several citizens when they talk about my nomination makes me very proud and I consider it a message that has without doubt reached me," he said. "It is the right of all citizens enjoying the ability and competency to aspire to a position and participate in serving the homeland, including the prestigious position of president. That holds true for me, for Al Baradei and also for Jamal Mubarak." Mousa's comments were viewed by many analysts as being disappointingly vague.

Although many commentators believe that the most likely scenario is that Jamal will take over in 2011 after his father's fifth six-year term in office, others say he, unlike the three former presidents since 1952, lacks the military background and the wide popularity.

However, that is not the case for Omar Sulaiman, Egypt's Chief of Intelligence, who has emerged as a possible contender to succeed Mubarak as he belongs to the military establishment, and at the same time, has won the president's confidence on many issues, especially his handling of the Palestinian file.

Like Mousa, Al Baradei is also a legitimate son of Egyptian diplomacy, as he began working with the Egyptian Diplomatic Service after earning a degree in law from Cairo University in 1962. For the next 16 years, he was employed as a part of the Permanent Missions, representing Egypt in the United Nations. Even as a part of the Egyptian-Israeli peace talks at Camp David in the late 1970s.

He joined the IAEA in 1984 and held a series of high-level positions in the organisation that have often placed him in the spotlight. One of the major issues during Al Baradei's second term was the agency's inspections in Iraq. Al Baradei disputed the US rationale for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The rift that resulted between him and the United States made Washington oppose Al Baradei's reappointment in 2005. However, the US failed to win enough support from other countries to oust Al Baradei as he was unanimously re-appointed by the IAEA board.

Al Baradei's move on the presidency has elicited mixed reactions in the Egyptian political world. Some considered it an embarrassing message to the regime from a "heavyweight" international figure, while others saw it as a promising effort that would eventually open new horizons for Egypt's "strangulated" political life.

Yehia Al Jamal, professor of constitutional law at Cairo University, argues that "Baradei's remarks caused enormous embarrassment to NDP officials."

"Their furious reactions clearly illustrate the extent of their embarrassment. Al Baradei's experience in international circles and the respect he enjoys both at home and abroad make him an ideal presidential candidate, dismissing the NDP's constant refrain that there is a shortage of capable candidates in Egypt," he said.

After Al Baradei hinted at his intention to enter the presidential race, a scathing attack was launched against him, mostly by state-owned newspaper editors along with NDP members, describing his plan as a fanciful idea and accusing him of arrogance.

Al Baradei is being criticised mainly for having little connection with Egypt as he has spent only six years in the country since 1964. He is out of touch with issues related to the country and Egyptians are hardly familiar with his background, beliefs, or vision for the country, his opponents say. His limited political career and narrow range of relationships with world leaders also go against him. Responding to the criticism, Al Baradei has said: "I've met many presidents and kings, including [Barack] Obama, [Jacques] Chirac and [Nicolas] Sarkozy, and I've had associations with the presidents of more than 50 countries. I didn't discuss inspections with them; we discussed the problems facing the world. And beyond that, half of our work isn't inspections, it's development."

Osama Saraya, editor of the daily Al Ahram, said: "Al Baradei's remarks were tantamount to a constitutional coup and opened the door for the American policy of constructive chaos in Egypt."

Mahmoud Hassanien, a member of parliament from the NDP, told Weekend Review that "anyone successful in his field cannot work as the Egyptian president. It is a complicated job and needs many qualifications that Al Baradei does not have."

"With all respect to him, it was such an honour for all Egyptians to see him at many international occasions but what does Al Baradei know about Egypt?" Hassanien asked. "He has been living abroad for years. He knows nothing about the problems of Egypt. He has never visited impoverished Egyptian villages, experienced the problems of ordinary citizens or developed a base of public support to qualify to be the president of Egypt."

Al Baradei told Al Shorouk that everyone had a right to present his opinion about whether he is fit for the position or not but the right to decide was the people's and not the NDP's.

"I will decide whether to run based on the will of the people. So the people will decide whether I am the fittest or not," he said. "I wasn't expecting that response at all. Unfortunately, some government newspapers have become outlets for government propaganda. If their viewpoint is that I am not fit to run, why don't they tell me what qualities the president should have? Besides, it is for the people to judge at the end of the day."

Al Baradei's work has been universally recognised by the international community as he and the IAEA were jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005 "for their efforts to prevent nuclear energy from being used for military purposes and to ensure that nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is used in the safest possible way". Al Baradei donated his prize money to build orphanages in his home town, Cairo.

Many political parties have welcomed Al Baradei's position, which is believed to have stirred up the Egyptian political scene although he has said he would not be a candidate of any party but run as an independent. Members of the liberal Wafd opposition party's youth wing have nominated Al Baradei to join the supreme body of the party to be nominated for the country's 2011 presidential elections. "We have formed a committee to support Al Baradei and will work towards getting him elected to the leadership of the party," said Mohammad Salah Al Shaikh, the committee's coordinator.

Party members confirmed their intention to put forward the idea to the party's various committees. Osama Bahrawy, Secretary of the Wafd Party in the Al Gharbiya governorate, said there was a trend among party leaders to get Baradei to join the supreme body of their party. This would enable the party to convince him to be its representative in the upcoming presidential elections, he added.

Although the liberal-oriented Wafd Party was the first to ask Al Baradei to join its ranks and be its candidate for the 2011 presidential elections, it recently backtracked. "The Wafd is not interested in importing presidential candidates. We have our own qualified leaders," Mahmoud Abaza, the party's chairman, said.

The Free Constitutional and Social Party, led by Shura Council member Mamdouh Qenawi, said "it would be an honour for the party if Al Baradei became its candidate".

George Ishak, a prominent leader of the opposition Kefaya movement, said: "We want to give Al Baradei a chance to think seriously about his decision till he can configure his vision about Egypt's future and state the programme he would like to adopt."

The Egyptian opposition may work hard to reach a consensus on Al Baradei's candidacy but it is unlikely to happen as there are differences over whether or not to support only one figure to represent the opposition.

The founder of the Egyptian Al Ghad Party, Ayman Nour, who was the runner-up of the 2005 contest with seven per cent of the votes, invited Al Baradei to join his nationwide, nonpartisan, door-knocking campaign launched last April to promote the ideas of reform and change. Nour also invited him to begin a national campaign to establish a constitutional convention to draft a new constitution for the country.

"We invited him to lead the campaign's second phase starting this month. In the first phase, we visited about 20 governorates and 30 cities. The second phase will include weekly visits to the countryside population centres," Nour said.

The other strong force in the campaign to support Al Baradei consists of activists using avenues on the internet such as blogs and Facebook. Several groups were created on Facebook to garner support for Al Baradei's candidacy.

The membership of one such group, called "Al Baradei candidate in 2011 presidential elections" had reached about 30,000 at the time of writing.

What might be called "Facebook politics" has became a noteworthy trend in Egypt, especially after the creation of a group that helped organise many strikes. One such agitation was that on April 6, 2008, to express solidarity with the workers of Mahala Textiles, which led to the emergence of the "April 6 movement".

In a statement days before coming to Cairo, Al Baradei said a number of steps — such as guaranteeing clean elections under judicial and international supervision — should be undertaken if people were serious about democracy.

Doubts that such a step might impinge on Egypt's sovereignty were unfounded because international supervision would not deny sovereignty, rather increase it, and send a message to the international community that we belong to that community, he added, saying: "We are part of the global system and cannot leave it."

Raghda El Halawany is a journalist based in Cairo.