Do not provoke Israel, experts say

Dubai: Strategists and military analysts said Hezbollah might be immune to an Israeli attack in the short and medium terms but stressed that the party can not maintain its position as a key organisation in the long run.

Dr Mustafa Al Ani, Middle East and Gulf Political Expert, and researchers at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre, said Hezbollah might be correct in feeling secure against an Israeli attack, but not if the Jewish state were provoked by the organisation.

"In my opinion neither Hezbollah nor Israel will seek a military confrontation at this moment, but that can not be taken for granted because once Israel is provoked or is sure about the locations of the Scud missiles there will be a tough reaction," he said.

Strategic mistake

Hezbollah might commit a great strategic mistake if it feels that US influence is diminishing in the region, Al Ani warned.

"The US faces difficulties in continuing with its old policies, but that does not mean that it will withdraw from the region which will be vital for a long time to come," he said.

As for Hezbollah's deputy secretary general Shaikh Naeem Qasim's views on a possible Israeli strike on Iran, Al Ani disagreed saying that Israel will not attack Iran unless it faces growing pressure from the US to enter peace negotiations with the Palestinians. Al Ani believes a strike on Iran would be a way for Israel to divert international attention from the peace process.

On the other hand, the peace process is itself a threat to Hezbollah, as it will delegitimise its military arsenal. "Progress in peace will require Syria, which influences Hezbollah greatly, to diminish its arsenal. Syria might not be the one supplying Hezbollah with arms, but it is definitely a conduit and has great knowledge about the military capability of the militia," he explained.

Riad Kahwaji, Director General of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) told Gulf News that the power balance of military forces in the region should be redefined. "Hybrid warfare, which is the combination of digital-age techniques in the hands of guerrillas has been effectively demonstrated in the war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006," but is not enough to ensure deterrence, Kahwaji believes. In his opinion, he believes Hezbollah and Iran are not realistic in their belief that US power and influence in the region is diminishing.

"The US has been very clear that the objective of opening communication with Syria is to convince it to ditch Iran and join its side. The question here is to which extent the West will succeed," he said.