Battle lines drawn for Lebanon parliament polls

Beirut: There is much at stake for political parties contesting the upcoming parliamentary elections in Lebanon.

The June 7 vote will define the power dynamics of the country and region for the next four years and one can sense the tension rising among national leaders and the diaspora.

Regional and international politics often influence the Lebanese political landscape and the electoral performance of the incumbent parliamentary majority, the Western-backed March 14 alliance, as it takes on the Hezbollah and its Christian ally, Free Patriotic Front leader Michel Aoun, is expected to be closely followed beyond the national borders.

Election experts believe the tussle between the two camps is going to be a close affair.

A total of 587 candidates are contesting 128 seats, divided according to sect and region. Some of the districts have been redrawn according to the Doha agreement signed by Lebanese leaders last May.

The agreement ended a five-day armed conflict between supporters of Shiite and Sunni parties' in Beirut. It gave the opposition veto power with a third of the cabinet's berths and resulted in Michel Sulaiman becoming president. The agreement also stipulated that the country adopt the 1960s electoral law for the upcoming elections, albeit with minor changes. Regions with mainly Christian strongholds will now witness the fiercest battles.

Although the political line of the two camps has been defined since the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005, recent political events could pull less decided voters in either direction.

First, Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Junblatt's leaked video, in which he is shown slamming the country's Maronites as "bad breed" caused a schism in the March 14 voter base.

In addition, the acquittal of the four generals who were suspected of being involved in the assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005 may have demoralised March 14 voters and reduced the value of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, a major pillar of the March 14 alliance.

Some elections experts claim, however, that the release of the suspect generals has fortified Sunni sentiment in the country, bringing Sunni voters closer to March 14.

The March 8 coalition for its part has not shown much cohesion either. For one, tensions between the Shiite Amal group leader Nabih Berri and major ally of the opposition Michel Aoun surfaced when they failed to forge a deal over the seats in the southern town of Jezzine, one of the most politically sensitive districts in the elections.

Furthermore, the March 8 camp recently demanded that the national unity government adopt what is known as the 'obstructing third' proposition, which gives the opposing camp veto power over government policy.

In a fiery speech he gave at a graduation ceremony last Friday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said: "Anyone who wants real partnership should search for the guaranteeing third or the veto power in the opposition government," adding that this rule should be applied regardless of who wins a majority in the elections.

Nasrallah said that May 7, the day Hezbollah supporters swept through areas in the capital inhabited by Sunni supporters and clashed with rivals, is a 'glorious day' that should not be forgotten.

Future Movement leader Sa'ad Hariri has sought to denounce last year's clashes and urged supporters to have their say on the May 7 events 'in the ballot box'.

March 14 General Secretariat official Fares Soueid said: "Nasrallah's speech does not help Michel Aoun but rather complicates his standing within the Christian community."

Amid all these considerations, the finalisation of electoral lists has been delayed in several areas.

Lebanese pollsters expect both sides to gain a relatively similar number of seats in parliament, with the possible formation of an independent bloc which may play a big role in shifting the balance in either direction.

With less than three weeks to the elections, campaigning is getting more intense, and expensive, as candidates strive to demonstrate power and attract voters. For many of the voters who are not moved by political goals, tribal or regional allegiances, June 7 is also pay day.

"I have been offered money but I refused because I know I can get more on election day," said Sandra Al Haddad, 32, who votes in Zahle, one of the most heated districts in the country.

An elections supervisory committee and three international organisations are monitoring the vote on June 7 and an expenditure ceiling has been enacted in the new electoral law but the Lebanese know vote-buying is not something that can be tamed - at least not this June.

"Let them pay," said Mohammad Saleh, a Beirut resident who will not be voting in June. "It's the one time the Lebanese get anything from politicians."

Maysam Ali is a freelance journalist based in Beirut.