Another year of conflict ahead for war battered Iraq

On the fourth anniversary of the Anglo-American intervention in Iraq, the United States, which bears the heaviest share of the burden in struggling to impose law and order, is anxious to perceive an outcome.

The worst scenario would be collapse of Iraq into outright civil war. Many outsiders may take the view that civil war has already engulfed that unfortunate country.

That, however, is not strictly the case since a civil war is defined as struggle to take control of a country's government. Despite western efforts to establish such a government in Iraq, nothing like one has yet come into being.

What has engulfed Iraq is a bitter communal struggle for dominance between ethnic and religious factions, the preliminary to civil war but not civil war itself.

The principal factions are the Shiite majority and the Sunni minority, historically the ruling group which enjoyed power under Saddam Hussain, himself a Sunni, which he exercised through the Baath party.

That was dissolved by the American invaders but its former members, who resent their fall from power, continue to play a major role in Iraqi affairs through the activity of their militias which are locked in a fierce and violent struggle with their Shiite counterparts.

Suppress disorder

The militias have between them created the major disorder which western military forces identify as an insurgency.

Intertwined with the insurgency is a vicious terrorist campaign largely conducted by troublemakers, mainly anti-western in motivation. Much of the military hardware behind it comes from Iran.

If the situation is not to worsen and if the onset of a true civil war is to be averted, the disorder must be suppressed. It is widely accepted that the key to rescuing Iraq from its current situation is to defeat both insurgents and terrorists.

Western powers hope it will be possible to do so by enhancing the capability of the nascent Iraqi army which the elected Iraqi government is struggling with American and British assistance to recruit, train and equip.

All the westerners involved in Iraq agree that if the Iraqi army can be brought to a reasonable level of effectiveness it offers the best hope of restoring order and imposing respect of governmental authority.

Unless that is achieved, the only hope of limiting the insurgency and the terrorist campaign rests on the involvement of the American and British forces which suffer casualties every day in their fight to overcome their enemies.

Ideally the Anglo-American effort will eventually result in their replacement by Iraqi troops and then police.

That outcome, however, lies in the future and is not approaching any speed if indeed it is approaching at all.

The coming of peace in Iraq therefore depends on spiritual and psychological factors, strengthening of the self-confidence of the new Iraqi army and the continued willingness of the American and British governments and their electorates to bear the burden of a foreign war which is unpopular and at present unsuccessful.

No credible timetable for a result is perceptible. It seems possible that after four years of war another year of conflict at least awaits both Iraqi security forces and their British and American fellow combatants.