Malaysia's ruling coalition may face painful surprises

Kuala Lumpur: Malaysia votes on Saturday and the ruling coalition is virtually assured of victory, but there are signs a few painful surprises could still be in store.

The campaign has been dull even by standards of Malaysian democracy, which has never seen a change of government. But this does not necessarily portend another easy victory for the Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition, political experts said yesterday.

A sharply reduced majority could threaten Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's leadership and lead to a purge of Barisan, its cabinet line-up and policy platform, they said.

Barisan's main threat comes from the minority ethnic Indian and Chinese communities, which make up a third of the population.

They have shown clear signs of discontent with the coalition, which is dominated by the ethnic Malay majority, and have been quietly turning up in droves to night-time opposition rallies during the past two weeks of campaigning.

"Every party in the Barisan, especially the key component parties, will face a reckoning as a result of this election," said political scientist Bridget Welsh of US-based Johns Hopkins University, who is in Malaysia for the election.

"The attendance of Chinese and Indian voters at opposition rallies seems to be overwhelming, much higher than in previous elections," said pollster Ibrahim Suffian, of local market-research firm, the Merdeka Center.

Barisan concedes that a protest vote by Chinese and Indians could cost them "some seats". But neither the coalition, the opposition parties nor the pundits seem sure of just how many.

Worst-case scenario

The loss of 40 seats or more could ring alarm bells for Barisan, Welsh said. It now holds 199 seats and says it needs to retain at least 148 seats, or two-thirds, in the next 222-seat parliament to ensure "stability".

That is code for the election of 1969, the last time the coalition failed to win a two-thirds majority, the level required to change the constitution. After the 1969 vote, race riots broke out and a state of emergency ensued until 1971.

"The Barisan will panic if the opposition gets 40 seats," said Zainon Ahmad, political editor of Malaysia's more independent Sun newspaper. "But if Barisan loses two-thirds majority, there will be a lot to account for by the leaders."