Simmering rows threaten to flareup
The year 2010 ended on a positive note from the point of view of international peace and stability
New Delhi: The year 2010 ended on a positive note from the point of view of international peace and stability. While it is hoped the New Year remains turmoil free and brings in more cheer, experts are of the opinion that turbulence will continue globally, yet diplomatic relations will become increasingly multi-faceted.
Gurmeet Kanwal, Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi, is of the opinion that the ratification by the US Senate of the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (Start) treaty will further reduce deployed strategic nuclear weapons of Russia and the US to 1,550 in seven years.
"The strategic stalemate in Afghanistan will continue with the Taliban and Nato-Isaf forces alternately gaining local ascendancy for short duration. While US forces may be expected to step up drone strikes in Pakistan against extremists sheltering in the North West Frontier Province [Khyber Pukhtunkwa] and Federally Administered Tribal Areas areas, the results are not likely to be commensurate with the diplomatic fallout in Pakistan. It will be difficult for the US to begin its planned drawdown of troops in July 2011," he said.
Talking about other fronts, he mentioned the military stand-off along the 38th Parallel in Korea, which has further exacerbated the already unstable situation in East Asia caused by increasing Chinese assertiveness. "Though the international community may be able to ensure that a major conflict does not erupt again between the two Koreas, the sub-region will remain volatile unless the Chinese use their influence with North Korea to persuade it to back off from the path of confrontation," the director added.
Major shifts
"Turmoil in West Asia will continue through 2011 as Israel stubbornly refuses to halt the construction of new settlements [colonies] in the West Bank. It can be deduced from recent arrests in the UK and elsewhere that international fundamentalist terrorists may succeed in launching another spectacular strike in the West," Kanwal said.
The younger generation Indian politician and federal Minister of State, Communications & Information Technology, Sachin Pilot, however, remains positive.
He said that 2011 is going to be marked by major shifts in the world's geo-political landscape. "On the economic front, emerging economies such as India will continue to lead the recovery of the world economy. They will also assert their enhanced role in international financial institutions."
The minister estimated that this would set the framework for a new global financial architecture.
On the diplomatic front, he believed that in the New Year diplomatic relations will become increasingly multi-faceted. Pilot said, "While blocks such as the EU [European Union] and Asean [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] are still relevant, they will find that their relationships are guided by multiple concerns — energy needs, security needs, political ideology, and presence in world bodies such as the UN."
