Mustapha Karkouti: Arab-Israel conflict hinders democracy in Middle East

The vast majority of Arabs would be delighted to see the advancement of real democracy into their own countries, whether through self-help or with external aid. Either way, the Arabs will consider themselves the winners.

But when the US administration declares that it will support a programme to establish democracy in the region, its call keeps falling on deaf ears. Some people may point to the contradiction in this position. But, when carefully examined, one can see a lot of logic and reason behind the Arab hesitation.

First, in its long history of relations with the Middle East, the US has not shown any tangible effort to help the process of democratisation in the Arab World. Instead, successive administrations have mainly been keen on sustaining the existing political arrangements in the region, defending, and some times actively protecting, traditional regimes and despotic rulers.

This policy has continued to remain the US strategy in the region even after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The end of the Cold War era has not altered US policy on this issue and the Clinton administration did not shuffle America's priority in the Middle East.

Admittedly, his administration went a long way down the route of solving the Arab-Israel question and he almost succeeded. But no attempt, whatsoever, had been made to jolt Arabs towards embracing democracy.

Second, democracy and political reform have rarely been an item in any American-Arab bilateral relations. Now, you would hear some American officials say: Then, we did not have 9/11, but now we do. Europeans have been more forthcoming on the issue. They often bring up the subject when dealing with the Arab governments, particularly within the framework of the so-called European-Mediterranean partnership.

The latest country in the Middle East to have gone through the experience is Syria. The European Union, EU, has requested the Syrian government to start a programme of political reforms, as a condition before it ratifies a trade partnership treaty it had signed earlier with Damascus.

Third, most Arabs do not take America's call for democracy in their region seriously. What the Bush administration is about to offer is an ambitious bid to promote democracy in the "greater Middle East".

It has been reported that senior White House and State Department officials have already begun talks with key European allies, including Britain, Spain, Italy and some Eastern Europe governments about a master plan to be put forward this summer at various summits of the Group of Eight nations, G-8, Nato allies and the EU.

At each of the three summits in June, the US would like allies to agree on principles of political, economic and security change - many outlined by the Arabs themselves in two United Nations Development Programme, UNDP, reports - and ways to enact reforms.

The G-8, Nato, the US and the EU would each focus on the issues most relevant to its goals. The review process would then be built into subsequent annual summits of the three alliances, according to US officials.

Details are still being worked out. The American initiative, scheduled to be unveiled first at the G-8 summit to be hosted by President Bush at Sea Island, Georgia in June is expected to call for Arab and South Asian governments to adopt major political reforms, be held accountable on human rights - particularly women's empowerment - and introduce economic reforms.

Securing international backing, the Bush administration then hopes to win commitments of action from Middle Eastern and South Asian countries, to implement the programme of reforms.

As incentives for the targeted countries to co-operate, western nations would offer to expand political engagement, increase aid, facilitate membership of the World Trade Organisation, WTO, and foster security arrangements.

The American approach is loosely modelled on the 1975 Helsinki Accords signed by 35 nations, including the US, the Soviet Union and almost all European countries. The White House is leading (some say "misleading") the public to believe this "democracy crusade" is going to be a vital item on Bush's agenda if he wins a second term.

But some Arabs believe what the administration is really after, is by and large, some form of docility rather than full-fledged democracy. Other Arabs, including traditional and long standing US allies, suspect that there will not be any such call.

To believe that a "Helsinki for the Middle East" will curtail terrorism, which the Bush administration has made its top priority, and lead to the fall of despotic regimes, the US government is either naively simplifying a complex situation or deliberately ignoring the real issue.

The real issue is not a question of development in the Arab world only, but it is both an issue of development and peace. And as long as the Arab-Israel conflict over Palestine is not solved, the development process will continuously be interrupted and irreversibly set back.

In a recent speech at the 40th Munich Conference on Security Policy, Jordan's monarch, King Abdullah, a close ally of the US, warned the Bush administration that the "core challenge (in the Middle East is) ending the Arab-Israel conflict." Any solution for this conflict has to be just and comprehensive. This is the real and immediate challenge.

Mustapha Karkouti is a former president, Foreign Press Association in London. He can be contacted at mkarkouti@gulfnews.com