Can the Mufti fulfil hopes in Kashmir?

The recent legislative elections that took place in the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir - over four rounds in September and October - have brought out a number of facts that can be summed up in the following:

First: The elections have confirmed once again that Indian democracy is still healthy. In spite of the climate of growing tension and escalation by Kashmiri gunmen, the elections have taken place and voters proceeded to the polling centres in reasonable numbers in defiance of intimidation, explosions, threats and acts of murder. On the other hand, the Indian government has remained committed to its promise of non-interference and rigging as reported by foreign observers. Evidence of this lies in the failure of the parties that support the Indian government's Kashmir policy to achieve a sweeping victory.

Second: None of the participating parties could gain the required majority to form a new government on their own, hence the election resulted in a hung assembly. This forced the Indian government to administer this turbulent state from New Delhi pending agreement among the winners to form a coalition.

Third: In spite of the success of the Kashmiri National Conference Party (NCP), which dominated the political life in this region since the era of its founder Sheikh Abdullah (Lion of Kashmir), to obtain the numerical majority of seats (contested in 85 constituencies and won 28 seats out of a total of 87 seats of the assembly), it was described as the biggest loser. It seemed that NCP's last minute measures could not provide a rescue. These measures included the resignation of the party's leader, Farooq Abdullah, and replacing him by a young leadership represented by the latter's son, Omar Abdullah, in order to escape the accusations of errors, corruption and strong loyalty to New Delhi.

Fourth: The Congress Party and the People's Democratic Party (PDP) emerged as key powers in any bargaining for the formation of a coalition government. The Congress and PDP contested in 78 and 58 constituencies and won 21 and 16 seats respectively, making them, with the assistance of some independent representatives, able to form a government.

Fifth: India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could only win one seat in spite of having fielded 58 candidates. This reflects the Kashmiris' loss of faith in BJP policies and its handling of the Kashmir issue. However, this outcome also reflects its commitment to democratic practices and abstention from using the tools of influence at its disposal for ensuring the success of its candidates.

Sixth: The elections' results have proved that Kashmir is no exception in denying a fair representation to women. Kashmiri women could only win one seat taken by Mahbooba Mufti, daughter of PDP's president, while the other candidates failed (25 candidates of whom 15 contested under the banner of political parties and 10 were independent candidates).

Given all the above facts, it was inevitable for the winning parties to enter into difficult bargaining and alliances for the formation of a coalition government. As expected, the Congress Party and PDP led such bargaining in the hope of blocking the road for NCP to return to power somehow.

For them, the ground was paved to enter into an alliance since the two sides knew each other very well and had previously cooperated on the regional and national levels. It has been said that Congress president, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, used her power and weight to remove the main obstacle of who will occupy the post of chief minister.

That was when she moved to support the idea of leaving the post for PDP's president, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, provided that his first deputy would be a Congressman.

On November 2, the awaited coalition government was born under the leadership of the Mufti. The post of deputy chief minister was given to Pandit Mangat Ram Sharma, the veteran politician, former minister in Kashmir and speaker of its assembly between 1984-1987.

The ministerial portfolios were temporarily divided between Congress and PDP in a manner giving the latter more power despite its limited number of seats in comparison with the former. The ministry of the coalition government is expected to expand within two weeks to give representation to some independent deputies.

Since Kashmir has now a new chief minister, it is important to throw some light on his personality, policy, and ability to bring about peace and stability in his turbulent state. In other words, can the Mufti really achieve some of his people's hopes?

For almost four decades Mufti Mohammed Sayeed has continued dreaming of expelling the family of Sheikh Abdullah from power in Kashmir. Even though he could, at 67 years of age, have his dream come true, the quality associated with his name has always been the ability to survive in the maze of politics through shifting his political loyalty.

Moreover, he is often described by the Indian politicians as being hesitant and lenient in the face of difficult situations. They cite two incidents for which the Mufti's stands had grave consequences. During his tenure as the Union Home Minister in the V. P. Singh Government from December 1989 to November 1990, he was very lenient in confronting the emerging armed resistance movement in Kashmir, resulting in its growth and spread.

When one of the rebellious Kashmiri groups kidnapped his daughter Rubayya to pressure New Delhi to release five militants from jail, he reluctantly accepted the kidnappers' demands preferring his daughter's safety to the requirements of national security.

However, these lenient stands could not win him any favours from the Kashmiri armed movements. At the time when he was taking the oath as a new leader of the state, one of the armed factions launched a missile aimed at him.

Nevertheless, the Mufti is still convinced of the possibility of engagement in an unconditional dialogue with the rebels to put an end to over a decade-old violence, something that if it ceases to be mere wishful thinking could make us witness a new political scene in Kashmir.

Mufti Mohammed Sayeed was born on January 12, 1936 in Brijbehara of Anantnag district in Jammu & Kashmir. He studied at SP College in the capital Srinagar and went to the famous Aligarh University from which he graduated with a masters degree in law. His venture in the turbulent world of politics started in the 1950s when he worked with Sheikh Abdullah within the Kashmiri National Conference Party.

However, in 1959 he left the NCP and joined the Democratic National Confer-ence. With the merger of his party in 1965 with India's ruling Congress Party at that time, the Mufti became a Congress symbol. Furthermore, he led during the period from 1975-1987 the party's branch in Kashmir as chairman, legislator, and regional minister.

He came close to becoming the chief minister of Kashmir in 1976 when the Congress withdrew its support to Sheikh Abdullah's government. His political journey also includes moving to national politics in 1986 and becoming a member of the Rajya Sabha (India's federal parliament) and a minister of tourism in the Rajiv Gandhi government.

When the Mufti realise