A wise general knows when the time has come to retreat

Pakistan's military dictator decided this month to seek the country's presidency through a referendum. An election commission judge resigned protesting that the referendum was unconstitutional.

The Pakistan Bar Association, the Pakistani press and political parties called it unconstitutional too. And despite using public funds to benefit his campaign, General Pervaz Musharraf found the rent a crowd chillingly indifferent to him.

When he seized power in October 1999, General Musharraf made many promises. He was unable to deliver on those promises despite a tenure as long as the political leaders he is fond of criticising.

Under Musharraf's watch as army chief and chief executive, Islamabad found itself at the brink of a potential nuclear war with neighbour India.

Domestically, the militants grew in strength killing doctors, gunning down worshippers in a Protestant Church and a Rawalpindi Mosque, tossing grenades in Lahore and brutally murdering the Wall Street reporter Daniel Pearl.

The General's coddling of the Taliban, who harboured Al Qaida, led to the killing of innocents in the U.S. and the resultant bombing of Afghanistan.

Despite international financial largesse, national revenues rem-ained low. Embarrassingly, revenues were 14 per cent of GDP as opposed to 18 per cent in 1996, under his political rival.

Growth was lower too, half of the six per cent in 1996. Investment was pitiable. The corruption drive foundered on the rock of political necessity. Those convicted by courts were freed on "humanitarian grounds".

Those without convictions continue facing the politically motivated iron fist of the regime. Corruption cases filed by the opposition against Musharraf's ministers remain unattended. The democratic leaders' practice of inviting tenders for contracts was done away with in selected cases. The General then decided to pass a law to benefit himself.

He twice doubled his salary in three years whilst poverty rates in the country increased. Little wonder that the General was unable to excite the crowds.

Campaign

To ensure that Musharraf wins the referendum, it was decided to do away with electoral lists, independent observers and polling agents to watch the cast of votes.

He campaigned in army fatigues with army generals sitting on the stage. His speeches spared the religious parties that supported militancy. His goal was discrediting the democratic leaders to the benefit of the militants he swore to control.

It seemed he was contesting against the leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party although I have little interest in the Pakistani presidencyhaving declared my candidature for the premiership.

The General's personality driven politics found him drawing lines in the sand between those that supported him and those that refused. Had he taken off the army uniform, his would be the only vote in his corner.

The Opposition,sensing blood, called for a boycott of the referendum. It asked Musharraf to hand power to the Supreme Court's Chief Justice if less than 50 per cent of the people turned out to vote. This, the General declined to do, confirming suspicions that he was less than confident of truly winning as he publicly declared.

The referendum mess polarises Pakistani society at a time when the international campaign against terrorism enters a dangerous new phase. The arrest of key Al Qaida militant, Abu Zubayda, in the Pakistani heartland of Punjab shows that Al Qaida members could either be hiding in Pakistan or have passed through it. For months the General had claimed that a cordon sanitaire on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border had prevented escapes.

As British and American troops search Afghan mountains and encounter guerilla resistance, an international military commander spoke of the possibility of hot pursuit into Pakistani territory.

Simultaneously, the Middle East is on fire fuelling Muslim anger. Fifty thousand Muslims took to Washington's streets for the first time in history to protest Israeli policies.

Indian and Pakistani troops continue pointing guns and missiles at each other across their borders. Were the India-Pakistan border to flare up at this time, the world could face a big mess.

General Musharaf may gamble that the international support he currently enjoys makes him the West's best bet. But if he ends up polarising Pakistani society at this critical juncture, he could turn out to be its worst nightmare.

Suspended

Presently, Pakistan's national and provincial assemblies are abolished. The elected president sacked. The Constitution is suspended. Political parties are persecuted and political leaders face state sponsored perversion of justice. Political activities are banned – except for those who support the dictatorship.

The state of democracy and human rights in Pakistan is quite similar today to what it was twenty years ago under General Zia ul Haq. He used Pakistan's critical importance to the United States in Afghanistan as a smokescreen for his own dictatorship. Now General Musharaf, contradicting the written Constitution of Pakistan, has announced a referendum on April 30 to extend his military dictatorship by five years, irrespective of subsequent election results.

The Musharraf record is at the expense of the democratic and human rights of the people of Pakistan. Unless the people of Pakistan are empowered, blow back in Afghanistan could become the prelude to a more horrific blowback in neighbouring, nuclear Pakistan.

The stakes are high. The long-term implications are great. Democracies don't start wars, just as they don't protect militancy. Democracies, operating under public constraints, consider the country more than an army battalion and the people more than subordinates to command. If General Musharaf wishes to be part of the country's democratic future, he should seek election in accordance with the constitution.

Pakistan's Supreme Court hears a petition challenging the referendum by the month's end. It could uphold the referendum or determine that it is an endorsement but not an election.

A wise general knows when to retreat. And this general, has already retreated unilaterally from Kargil's difficult peaks in the spring of 1999 when India and Pakistan nearly went to war. It's time for him to retreat again in the face of Pakistani public opinion. In doing so he can win a moral victory that a sham referendum can only deny him.

Benazir Bhutto is a former prime minister of Pakistan.