Pakistan’s impending national and provincial elections next month are arguably its most important ever. For the first time, a democratically elected government has been able to complete its full term to hand over power to a similar dispensation.
More importantly, the quantum of challenges that Pakistan faces, both internal and external, have expanded exponentially; while the capacity of its legislators, administrative machinery and physical infrastructure has substantially eroded.
This continuing decline, accelerated by three periods of military rule, ironically projecting the need for improved governance as justification for each takeover, has persisted in the intervening periods of democratic governments — including these past five years.
The main reason has been the lack of vision among the leadership of the day, military or civilian, and the weakening of the iron frame civil service bequeathed by the British to administer and impose law and order effectively. Other reasons are population growth far beyond state resources and crumbling infrastructure.
Also central to this state of affairs are external circumstances. Constant pressure from a larger India to keep Pakistan off balance until it falls in line and the war in Afghanistan with its consequences are largely beyond Pakistan’s control despite its best efforts to manage its relations with India, the US and Afghanistan.
The new government, whatever its composition, will immediately be faced with these major challenges. Internally, accessing energy supplies and improving power generation and distribution will be the drivers for an economy suffering from energy shortages. Tackling extremism and terrorism in the light of Nato’s planned 2014 exit from Afghanistan will be another priority. Expanding the economy to provide minimum health and welfare care and maximum educational opportunity will determine whether Pakistanis will be equipped to function in a globalised economy.
Some internal challenges and options, as for instance gas pipelines from Iran and from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan, impact Pakistan’s foreign relations, particularly with the US, Afghanistan and India. With India, it is clear which category to place it in: Not friendly and potentially hostile. Hence articulation of policy and response to moves by India are by and large well defined.
With America, however, such clarity is lacking. In some respects, the US is a friend and an ally, while in other dimensions of interaction, there prevails a grey area and an occasionally adversarial relationship. After 9/11, the US perceived Pakistan through the primary prism of its concerns with counterterrorism and the Afghan war and the auxiliary prism of its deepening and expanding strategic relationship with India — an important fulcrum and part of its pivot to contain China.
How to enhance its relevance to the US, therefore, will be a major priority for the next government, particularly as the long occupation of Afghanistan winds down. While the American “Pakistan-must-do-more” mantra has modulated this last year, there is much to make up. For instance, the bilateral strategic dialogue with the US needs upgrading. Though the common Pakistan-US objective of fostering peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan shall remain central, the challenge for Pakistan will be to find other avenues of engagement. As for the elections, several aspects stand out. First, it is so far a remarkably open race due partly to the new third force — Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party. There is no indication as to which party will prevail. All that can be said is that the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is entering the hustings without any key leader heading its campaign. Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) seems ascendant in Punjab, the largest province, having controlled it for the past five years. However, if the voter turnout goes significantly beyond the usual 45 per cent, then Imran’s PTI, with his impressive youth support base, may become a force to reckon with.
Second, for the first time, candidates are not getting free passes. Electoral reforms and public awareness — sparked off by the quixotic Tahir Al Qadri and a vibrant media and supported by the judiciary — have led to long awaited and sustained questioning of tax records, educational eligibility and other qualifications of candidates.
Third, the elections are significantly an inclusive process bringing all parties into the fray — including the nationalist ones from Balochistan and Sindh, sectarian groups and even banned organisations, canvassing directly or indirectly.
Fourth, there is a strong prospect of a hung parliament, necessitating a coalition government on even broader terms than the one in the last five years.
The downside will be the need to accommodate diverse parties and interests and the required compromises, resulting in weaker governance and delivery when the opposite is required.
The fifth point is, while Pervez Musharraf has returned to the country, commando-like and against general expectation, his record in office — unquestioned acquiescence to American demands following 9/11, mishandling of the judiciary, inability to tackle the energy crisis and unwillingness to enforce law and order — have left him without a viable constituency, vulnerable to extremist forces and facing charges including high treason. He is likely to be a footnote in the elections.
Finally, whatever the result there will be unfortunately no new faces apart from Imran himself. However, this is not exclusive to Pakistan. In India, the Congress party’s hold over the electorate has weakened, showcasing the blatantly communal Narendra Modi. Even in the western world, no statesman stands out since Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.
The invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan have thrown the entire region into an arc of instability. This dramatic backdrop to the elections makes it imperative that the outcome should enable Pakistan to better address the internal and external challenges it faces. The people of Pakistan deserve no less.
Tariq Osman Hyder is a former Pakistani diplomat.