US and Iran court Gulf states

Two radically different views on how the Gulf should manage its regional security were on show this week, as America and Iran ran unprecedentedly high level visits to the UAE and other GCC states. US Vice President Dick Cheney and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad both visited the UAE, giving very different messages.

The Americans are canvassing for active support for their floundering policies in Iraq, as well as for a hard line against Iran's nuclear ambitions. Underlying their search for support for these two actions, the US assumes continued support for the alliances they have built up over the decades with the GCC states.

This assumption has been questioned by Iran. The Iranians are looking for immediate commitments from the Gulf states that they will not support any possible US action against them over the nuclear dispute, but they are also re-floating their idea that the US military should leave the Gulf.

For many years, different administrations in Iran have suggested that a regional joint security system should be developed which would not include the Americans.

Certainly the GCC is working to avoid any military confrontation over the nuclear issue. At Tuesday's Consultative Summit, the GCC leaders spoke of the possible US strike against Iran, and said "the GCC countries stand firmly against the use of force".

But the UAE's response to Iran's radical suggestion to change the underlying alliances was to emphasis that it sees the route to solving the security challenges in the region is through settling its major conflicts: Iraq and Palestine.

In his talks with Ahmadinejad, President His Highness Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan spelled out the importance of working to establish national reconciliation in Iraq, and of protecting the unity and stability of Iraq; and of reviving the peace process to achieve the legitimate national objectives of the Palestinian people.

And in addition to these two major regional political issues, Shaikh Khalifa also laid great stress on the importance of developing economic and trade links, as part of a concerted effort to open wide range of areas of cooperation.

This is one of the ways that the UAE aims to maintain good relations with Iran, and it is part of the UAE's long established insistence that the challenges of the Gulf cannot be solved one by one, but have to be taken as part of an overall plan for peace in the region, which also encourages internal development, education and wider prosperity for the people.

The GCC states remain allies of the United States, but they are also deeply unhappy with some of the United States' policies. King Abdullah has described the presence of the US forces in Iraq as "an illegal occupation", and did not change his view even after meeting Cheney this week.

The situation in Iraq is going from bad to worse. The GCC was very clear that the Bush administration's plan for a military surge to enforce security is not the answer, and the GCC is looking for a more constructive way forward.

At the Consultative Summit, the GCC did not endorse the US-led surge, but called for the Iraqi government to work on national reconciliation, to amend the Iraqi constitution, and ensure fair distribution of wealth (interpreted as a call for the oil revenue to be shared across the whole country).

Meanwhile, Iran is enjoying the fruits of the United States demolishing its two most pressing enemies: Saddam Hussain in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Freed of these two dangers, Iran is able to be much stronger in promoting how it thinks the Gulf should be run.

This renewed confidence flows into the way that Ahmadinejad is presenting his case for peaceful nuclear power, which he emphasises "is pursued for peaceful purposes and is completely in compliance with the ... IAEA regulations".

In almost daring the US to attack, the Iranian president said, "If they have any intention of a military attack on Iran, I tell them that the era of such practices is over," adding that "its people are strong enough to defend their nation".

Of course, this is in direct opposition to the stated American view, expressed by Cheney this week, talking on the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Stennis in the Arabian Gulf. He said the United States would "stand with others to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and dominating this region".

But there are some emerging signs that the two positions may not lead to a military collision. It is possible that the hightened rhetoric from both Iran and the US is being used to emphasise their positions before they start to talk about the nuclear impasse.

The decision to have direct and high-level US-Iran talks on what to do in Iraq is an important breakthrough, and this follows other confidence building measures such as Iran's recent release of the British sailors, and the US allowing Red Cross access to five Revolutionary Guards imprisoned in Iran, and releasing an Iranian diplomat held by Iraqi security forces.

Such moves would be supported by the more moderate policy makers in the Bush administration, who argue that the US has to find a political answer in Iraq, with the help of the countries in the region, before they start another crisis.

And even the hardline thinkers in the administration might see the benefits of some kind of improvement in Iraq before the next US presidential elections in 2008.