The base, and the fall

Here is a basic rule of American presidential campaigns: would-be presidents play to their respective bases during the primaries and move towards the centre once the nomination is sewn up.

The theory, which has held for several generations, is that the Democrats and Republicans each command the loyalty of around 45 per cent of the voting public. General election victories, therefore, come from winning that final 10 per cent of voters occupying the undecided middle ground. To get to the general, however, one must first survive the primaries. Primary election turnout is notoriously minuscule (in many states 20 per cent passes for huge) and traditionally consists mainly of hard-core activists who have little in common with anyone outside their own political milieu.

The result is candidates on both sides who spend the fall hoping everyone will forget all of the crazy stuff they said during the previous winter and spring.

This explains how the Democrat's nominating process began with seven candidates competing to prove they were more liberal than Hillary Clinton and ended with Clinton desperately trying to convince other voters that she was more liberal than Barack Obama.

It also explains how John McCain, whose rise to national prominence was built on his reputation as an outsider willing to speak his mind and clash with party orthodoxy, spent a good portion of last year trying to convince the GOP faithful that he really, truly is one of their own.

The last few weeks, however, have been interesting because the post-primaries/pre-conventions rules for candidates and their supporters have not been playing out according to tradition.

Obama himself has done what one normally expects: having won the nomination as a liberal he has spent the last few weeks rapidly moving towards the centre. Most notably, he has aggressively sought support among evangelical Christians and backed an anti-gun control ruling by the US Supreme Court.

In this, some of Obama's supporters see a deep betrayal. Expecting him to transform America as a crusading liberal they now view him as a sellout, and are saying so, loudly. This violates another unwritten rule of politics: generally, true believers grumble in silence as their man moves towards the centre, taking solace in the idea that once the election is safely over, the 'real' candidate can safely reemerge.

Perhaps it is the nature of the internet age. Perhaps it is the fervour of the new voters Obama has brought into the political process. For whatever reason Obama's base has not reacted well to the first stages of the candidate's general election campaign.

Opposite problem

Paradoxically, McCain appears to be having the opposite problem. Months after wrapping up the GOP nomination he is still saying and doing the sort of things one would expect of a primary, rather than a general, election candidate. The impression that McCain believes his own base to be insecure is difficult to avoid.

The clearest evidence yet came last week when McCain sided with the Bush administration's latest cynical refusal to do anything serious about climate change.

Last Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency released a report concluding (after being forced by the courts to examine the issue in the first place) that regulating greenhouse gases falls within the agency's mandate. Having released the report, as required by law, the agency's head, Stephen Johnson, promptly rejected it. In doing so he repeated the long-standing GOP position that we should not try to reduce greenhouse gases because protecting the planet in the long term might harm the America's economy in the short term. Johnson made his point by warning of the creation of a "command and control economy" in language reminiscent of a 1950s anti-Communist crusader.

McCain, who has been an outspoken leader on climate change and has long supported capping greenhouse gas emissions, echoed that language in his statement supporting the administration's move.

What should we make of all this?

The answer is that Obama believes himself secure among Democrats but senses a need to broaden his appeal to win in November. McCain, on the other hand, continues to claim he is a maverick, but is doing everything he can to signal to the party faithful that they should not take that pose too seriously.

For McCain this is an especially dangerous strategy. Obama's strongest political argument is that a vote for the Arizona senator is, in effect, a vote for a third Bush term in office. Every time McCain abandons his own long-held principles in favour of the current administration's ideology-driven world view he, in essence, proves Obama's point.

Obama is counting on his base to stick with him in November, regardless of the compromises he may have to make along the way. McCain's quandary is that he knows his base does not really trust him. But the more he plays to it, the more he plays into Obama's hands. It has been widely said that Obama has not had a good couple of weeks. But surveying the road separating him from November he has to feel a lot better about what he sees than does McCain.

Gordon Robison is a journalist and consultant based in Burlington, Vermont & Cambridge, Massachusetts. He has lived in and reported on the Middle East for two decades, including assignments in Baghdad for both CNN and Fox News.