Thaksin brought his downfall

When the tanks surrounded the Thai Government House and key sites in Thailand to wrest control of the government led by prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra last Tuesday night, everyone was taken by surprise.

But what surprised people more was that the army managed to depose the first elected Thai prime minister who completed a full term with barely a murmur from the people.

Did the people hate Thaksin that much that a military coup was preferable to another round of elections? A few in Thailand are saddened that a military coup had to happen in order to topple Thaksin.

"We're back to zero," sighed a Thai government official.

But most support the coup as it got rid of Thaksin, who was expected to win the next elections, just because there was no other viable candidate.

"It's the same old story. Somebody you hate wins because you don't like anybody else enough," said a diplomat from a neighbouring country.

The signs had been there for a while. Thaksin had become increasingly unpopular with the Thai elite, urbanites and Muslims, most of whom live in the south.

The anger the people had for Thaksin was primarily fuelled by a telecommunications scandal, in which Thaksin's family allegedly made $1.9 billion profit under a tax-free deal. The military junta are now launching an investigation and considering freezing his assets. As for Muslims, it was his heavy-handed tactics against them and their brethren in the restive southern region, suffering from a separatist movement.

The dissatisfaction was further fuelled by a political stalemate, when the courts ruled April's snap elections null and void because the opposition had boycotted the elections. Fresh elections were ordered for October 15 of this year. As the date for elections neared, Thaksin's actions bespoke of his desperation to cling to power. There were accusations of conspiracies to topple him, including alleged assassination and coup d'etat attempts, which can now be seen as either vindicated or as a self-fulfilling prophecy, depending on who you talk to.

Bloc voting

In the week leading to the coup, Thaksin could be seen flexing his political muscle once more influencing the election of the new members to the Election Commission. Senators, many of whom are pro-Thaksin, were accused of bloc voting, electing candidates who were seen, if not actual supporters of the government, were non-critical of Thaksin.

It was another move that made the possibility of him returning to power, with an even bigger mandate, very real. However, it would probably have not been the end for Thaksin if it were not for the royal factor.

In his desperate bid to cling to power, Thaksin made enemies many in the highest echelons of Thai society, who many believe included King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

Thaksin has time and time again indirectly challenged the king's authority and influence. He has gone against the palace's wishes of a "gentle approach" to the unrest in the south, choosing harsh tactics instead, causing many deaths, including 85 protesters in the southern town of Tak Bai in 2004.

Although he has made some symbolic reconciliatory gestures to end the unrest, they were largely for show.

Thaksin set up a National Reconciliation Commission to propose a workable solution to end the unrest but did not fulfil his promise to implement its recommendations.

After giving sweeping powers in early September to Army Chief General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin (who later headed the coup) to solve the unrest, his administration made an about face and spoke against the Muslim general's proposal for a dialogue with key figures in the south.

Thaksin's anti-Royal moves do not end there. When the king summoned Thaksin to the palace on April 4, he promised the king that he would "take a break" from politics. But he soon went back on his word, becoming the "caretaker prime minister".

In June, Thaksin made a veiled criticism against the palace, when he accused a "charismatic, extra-constitutional figure" of interfering with the country's democratic process. Most analysts agree that it was a slight against the king's right-hand man, General Prem Tinsulanonda, and, some went on, the king.

Whoever the target was, it was unlikely to generate goodwill between the tycoon-turned politician and the palace. And when the king came out in support of the coup leaders, it merely confirmed what many had long thought: Thaksin was no longer the favourite son of Thailand.

The chips fall into place and democracy takes a hiatus in Thailand.