Status quo likely to remain in Kurdistan

Looking at images of Iraqi Kurds voting last week amidst picturesque scenery, the women wearing rainbow-coloured clothes and the men their traditional serwals, one can't help but say in wonder "they have come a long way".

Since 1991, the Iraqi Kurdistan Region has witnessed two elections. This year's election was different, however, because there was real competition.

The Kurdish provinces in Iraq - Dahuk, Erbil and Sulaimaniya - held dual elections for their parliament and president.

More political parties participated in these elections; 24 political entities competed for 111 parliamentary seats. And for the first time, large numbers of foreign observers monitored the elections.

Preliminary results show that the incumbent parties and the president secured their positions. The Kurdistan list, a unified slate made up of the incumbent Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) claimed around 60 per cent of the vote for the Kurdish parliament. The Change list, lead by former PUK leader Nawsherwan Mustafa, took 23.75 per cent, with the Reform and Services list taking third.

Masoud Barzani, the incumbent president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, secured a second term with 69.57 per cent of the vote.

Change mounted a spirited challenge to the monopoly on power of the two main parties, the KDP and the PUK, making this the first competitive election the semiautonomous enclave has seen. Turnout was put at 78 per cent, indicating the Kurds' enthusiasm to be a part of the ongoing political contest.

Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission said it was investigating a number of complaints lodged by opposition candidates but had not yet found any serious enough to affect the outcome of the vote.

The results were expected for several reasons. The Barazanis are very much the Kennedys of Kurdistan, where the late Mustafa Barzani (Masoud Barzani's father) is considered a Kurdish national figure.

The Talabanis have fought for Kurdistan for years. Opposing these two giants in elections will never be an easy feat for any party, gathering or group.

However, for the first time the Kurds' regional parliament in Erbil has a real opposition.

The Change movement, a collection of civil society campaigners, won about a quarter of the seats, while other opposition groups notched up at least 15 per cent of them, meaning that for once the parliament will not simply be divided between the Barzanis and Talabanis.

Nevertheless, it is unlikely that the iron grip of the KDP and PUK will ever be weakened. It is not easy to understand why real change is so difficult to achieve in Kurdistan unless you are part of a feudal society, where allegiances are almost impossible to shift.

Another pointer to the improbability of fundamental change in the way politics are conducted in Kurdistan is the poor example set by the Iraqi central government, with numerous parties and factions running the show in the worst possible manner.

Kurds would rather have a rigid two-party system that maintains security and stability than the chaos seen in the rest of Iraq.

So what does the Kurdish experience tell us? Five thousand people, mostly women and children, were killed in one blow in the late 1980s when the Kurdish village of Halabcha was targeted by Saddam Hussain's chemical weapons. As a result, these very gentle and tough people have become stronger and more determined.

Contrary to popular belief, the Kurds were granted autonomous rule by Saddam himself, but the reins of the regional Kurdish council of the 1970s were always in the hands of the central government in Baghdad.

It was only after 1991 that the Kurds started acting as a free and truly autonomous entity inside Iraq. Thereafter they enjoyed 13 years of relative freedom after the establishment by the British of a safe haven for Kurds in Dahuk, Erbil and Sulaimaniya.

Away from the despotic Baath regime, they clashed and fought among themselves for a while before realising that dividing their land between the two main parties was much more rewarding than following the Lebanese example.

Iraqi Kurds will never separate from Iraq for several reasons. They are patriots who love their country, no matter how chauvinistic they may seem. But most importantly, they are well aware that separating Kurdistan from Iraq will leave them completely vulnerable. They would then be easy prey for Turkey to the north and Iran to the east, as both countries would not welcome an independent Kurdish entity that might put ideas into the heads of Turkish and Iranian Kurds.

Kirkuk will remain a major problem for years to come. The Arabs will not let go, the Turkmen and Turkey consider it theirs, and the Kurds believe that the region will remain theirs till the end of time.

At the end of the day, Kurds are a part of Iraq and as such, Kirkuk belongs to them just as Dahuk, Erbil and Sulaimaniya belong to any Basrawi, Nejafi or Baghdadi.

A well-written, accurate, positive, unbiased article, Madam. Refreshing in this region. Well done.
Seerwan Ali Jaafar
Dubai,UAE
Posted: August 01, 2009, 07:12