Soaring oil prices could trigger a US attack on Iran

According to the national security strategy of the Bush administration, Iran was ranked as No. 1 enemy of the US. "We may face no greater challenge from a single country than from Iran.

For almost 20 years, the Iranian regime hid many of its key nuclear efforts from the international community. The United States and its allies will pressure Iran to provide objective guarantees that its nuclear programme is only for peaceful purposes.

This diplomatic effort must succeed if confrontation is to be avoided, the national security strategy warned. Similar concerns were reiterated by US and Western officials over the past few weeks; prominent among them was the remarks made by France's Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who cautioned that war with Iran could be imminent.

So far, Iran has failed to provide "objective guarantees" about the peaceful nature of its nuclear programme. It has, nevertheless, succeeded in deterring the US from launching pre-emptive strikes against its nuclear facilities.

Iran's powerful position vis-Ã -vis the US is based on credible threats, a prerequisite for an effective deterrence. It has also been maintained by the current weakness of the US stand in the world.

For the past three years, Iran has established itself as a regional hegemon in the Gulf region and beyond. It took advantage of the Bush administration's total preoccupation with the "war on terror" to advance its interests in Central Asia, the Middle East and the Gulf.

In addition, Tehran has pursued a strategy that would make it not only difficult for the US to attack its nuclear programme, but also to undermining vital US interests in the Middle East. The Bush administration has become absolutely convinced that Iran is the main threat not only for its Middle Eastern strategy, but worldwide.

Indeed, Iranian leaders have so far brilliantly manipulated the US difficulties in Iraq, the deteriorating popularity of the US President George W. Bush at home, and their carefully knitted regional alliances to get the Americans to think twice before attacking them.

They have also used the rising oil prices as a tool to expand their influence throughout the region. These same factors could, however, act as a double-edged weapon. For exactly the same reasons the US might seriously think of launching a massive aerial attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and military outposts.

The US is getting increasingly anxious about oil prices, which have risen more than 20 per cent over the past weeks and are expected to rise further in the coming months.

The US is undoubtedly concerned about the impact of high oil prices on its economy and on the wary public opinion in an election year. In recent months, the high prices have rekindled America's quest for alternatives and propelled energy security to the top of the Bush administration's agenda.

Yet, this is not the only source of concern for the US. High oil prices have, in the opinion of many US officials, emboldened rivals, such as Iran and Venezuela, which have used their oil revenue to prop up their governments and export their more radical agendas.

During his highly publicised visit to Saudi Arabia earlier this year, US Vice President Dick Cheney tried to convince the Saudi government to help circumscribe Iran's efforts within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) to cut oil production and therefore increase the prices.

Cheney argued that lower oil prices would help dry out Iran's nuclear ambitions, cripple its economy and therefore restrict its ability to meddle in regional affairs. Recent increases in the oil market indicate that Cheney's strategy has failed. This could indeed act as a catalyst for military action against Iran.

Dr Marwan Kabalan is a lecturer in media and international relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Syria.