Russia playing roulette

The recent decision of the Kyrgyz government to shut down the US air base at Manas, serving as Nato's Afghanistan supply lung, sparkled an intense debate about Russia's scale of involvement in the ex-Soviet republics and raised questions about whether Moscow is regaining a degree of its former influence over its "natural sphere".

Since its establishment in the autumn of 2001, the US air base in Kyrgyzstan has been founded upon the granting of narrow economic incentives to the host country, but not on the Kyrgyz Republic's commitment to a broader role in Afghanistan.

The Kyrgyz government felt, with this attitude, that it is no more than a beggar at the White House steps; complaining behind the scenes about the leasing terms of the base. Under these terms, the US paid Kyrgyzstan $63 million (Dh231.4 million) per year, and employed more than 320 Kyrgyz citizens at the base.

The Kremlin was orchestrating this closely, waiting for the right moment to interfere and play its favourite game - setting a fire and then rushing to put it out. A recent report in a Russian decision-making inner circle threw light on how Moscow had offered the Kyrgyz government a significant multi-year financial-aid package in exchange for the closing of the US base, and that Kyrgyzstan had decided to accept the Russian financial package, much to Washington's surprise.

The $2.15 billion Russian package, which was presented to President Kurmanbek Bakiyev on February 3, just hours before his announcement on the base closure, includes a $300-million low-interest loan, a $150-million cash payout and $1.7 billion in credit to complete the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant (even though neighbouring Uzbekistan has traditionally been opposed to projects that could potentially diminish water inflows into its territory). Part of the deal was also a debt-for-assets swap, in which the Kremlin forgives Kyrgyzstan's $193-million debt in exchange for a 48 per cent share in the Dastan naval munitions plant.

Russia, then, stepped forward and offered to provide the critical logistical link that the base's closing would create. Moscow declared it is willing to provide logistical support for getting the non-military cargo to Nato troops serving in landlocked Afghanistan. And with Taliban escalating their attacks in the Khyber Pass area, putting US and Nato supply lines in peril, it looks like Washington is being cornered for an ambush.

However, experts aver that Russia would not want this issue to seriously jeopardise its relationship with the new American administration. Rather, Moscow prefers to use the Kyrgyzstan base as a "bargaining chip" in a much wider strategic dialogue over the future of the US missile defence shield in Europe, for instance, and the issue of Nato membership for Georgia and Ukraine. It looks as if it is inviting the West for a dialogue, showing off some of its trump cards at the same time.

Unlike the tragic day of September 11, 2001, when then president Vladimir Putin was one of the first world leaders to call former American president George W. Bush and offer him access to intelligence on the "Taliban" and access to his country's airspace for armed US overflights, this time Russia wants to see what quid pro quo the US is willing to give in return.

Clearly, Russia is playing both sides by offering to solve a US logistics problem that it created. The troubled economic situation, rising unemployment and growing trade deficit in the Kyrgyz side has worked to its benefit. But it seems all's fair in strategic conflicts and war; or should one borrow the title of Ian Fleming's famous novel From Russia With Love to portray James Bond's plight in the post-Cold War era?

Rauf Baker is a Dubai-based journalist who specialises in Eastern European Affairs.