Palestinian voters: Engaged but realistic

A recent poll of Palestinians establishes a clear picture of voters' concerns in the lead up to the January 25th national parliamentary elections. Conducted in the second week of this month by Zogby International, the poll found Fatah holding a lead over Hamas's List for Reform and Change.

With Hamas showing strength in both the West Bank and Gaza and several minor lists doing better than expected, the Fatah edge appears to have diminished in recent weeks.

Overall, the major issues, in rank order of importance to Palestinian voters are: "release of prisoners" (from Israeli jails), "creating internal security", "forging national unity", "increasing employment", and "fighting corruption". Lower down the list of priority concerns are "confronting Israel" and "negotiating peace".

When asked which party will do a better job in addressing each of these issues, Fatah significantly outperforms Hamas. On five of these seven issues Fatah holds an edge, leading significantly in "negotiating peace", "increasing employment", and "internal security".

On "fighting corruption," the two groups are nearly tied. Only in "confronting Israel" does Hamas lead.

Reasons

Some of this explains the reasons behind why voters will choose between Fatah and Hamas. Over one-half of those who are voting for Fatah say they are doing so because Fatah "will do the best job". On the other hand, religion is the single largest reason voters are choosing the List for Reform and Change.

When asked to rate individual Palestinian leaders, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who is not on the ballot in this election, receives a high 62 per cent approval rating. The Palestinian National Authority (PNA) which he heads is not so favourably viewed. Overall, the PNA receives a low 22 per cent approval rating.

Of those who are on this January's ballot, Fatah's Marwan Barghouti is the favourite with an 81 per cent approval rating. Barghouti is the only leader who receives consistently high ratings among all sub-groups in the West Bank and Gaza. He even receives higher ratings from Hamas voters than Hamas's own leaders.

Given the net negative ratings given to Ahmad Qorei, one can only speculate how poorly Fatah might fare in this election if he had been at the head of the Fatah list.

After Barghouti, in order of popularity, comes Esmail Haniya, the head of the Hamas list, and Salam Fayad, the former finance minister who is currently leading the "third way list".

The lowest ratings given to any of the Palestinian leaders covered (included) in this poll were received by security chiefs Jibril Rajoub (only a 33 per cent favourable rating) and Mohammad Dahlan (43 per cent).

While Palestinian voters appear to be very much engaged in this election, they, nevertheless, are quite realistic about its relevance to their lives. Less than one-half believe that the outcome of this election will make any real change in the Palestinian situation. In fact, if the environment were different, the outcome, itself, might be quite different, as well.

Better job

For example, on one of the seven issues noted above "Which party would do a better job negotiating peace with Israel" Fatah wins by a 75-20 margin over Hamas. This margin is the same among both Fatah voters and those who are currently favouring Hamas!

Thus, it can be assumed that if Palestinians had any confidence that such negotiations were possible and that their choice in the election would determine whether or not peace negotiations might occur, their choice on election day could be affected.

But since, for all intents and purposes, Israel's unilateralism has foreclosed that possibility, Palestinians rank this issue lowest in importance and are making their choices on other grounds.

In some ways, this election in Palestine reminds me of elections in Washington DC, the US capital. Because neither Palestine nor Washington (or "DC" as it's called) has self-government, or any prospect of receiving such authority any time soon, elections can amount to, borrowing from Shakespeare, "sound and fury signifying nothing".

This doesn't mean that voter concerns aren't important, or that the process is irrelevant. But because voters understand the limits imposed on the parliament they will elect, it does explain why "internal" concerns like achieving national unity or fighting corruption rank so high.

And it may also explain why, given the choices voters appear to be making, this election will conclude with no party having won a decisive mandate to govern.

Given the fact that this election will occur on two levels, the exact outcome is difficult to predict. Nevertheless, if current polling is indicative of the outcome, the next Palestinian legislature will look like the Italian parliaments of old, with a governing coalition being cobbled out of a number of minority parties.

This may not be the best outcome, but it is the best that can be expected under the continuing occupation, with Palestinians feeling no real hope for peace.

Dr James Zogby is the president of the Arab American Institute in Washington, DC.