Netanyahu is pushing his luck

A third intifada threatens in the West Bank and the peace process lies in tatters as a result of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's stage-managed fallout with the US administration.

Just as he did in 1997, Netanyahu has managed to focus world attention on the clock rather than international law where Israel's construction of illegal colonies in Occupied East Jerusalem is concerned.

Then, Netanyahu broke a six-year deadlock on a planned Israeli colony at Abu Ghoneim (called Har Homa by the Israelis) in Occupied East Jerusalem by embroiling president Bill Clinton in discussions on the timing rather than the legitimacy of the project. Even as he assured Clinton that building would not start for many years, leaving plenty of time for final status talks, the bulldozers were rolling onto the site demolishing not only Palestinian homes but the flimsy remains of the Oslo Agreement. The UN Security Council formulated a resolution demanding an immediate halt to illegal construction at Har Homa; the US alone vetoed it.

Now, Eli Yashai, Netanyahu's ultra-right-wing Minister of the Interior, has angered the Americans by approving a Planning and Building Committee project for 1,600 new illegal colonist homes in Ramat Shlomo. The main reason for America's annoyance is the timing of the announcement, which came during US Vice President Joe Biden's visit to instigate the ‘proximity' peace talks the US has been brokering for several months.

Obama, let us not forget, originally made an Israeli commitment to freezing illegal colonies a pre-requisite for resuming negotiations; that his administration was now prepared to enter talks without such a commitment had already shown him to be weak in the face of Israeli intransigence.

Though Netanyahu claimed he was not party to Yashai's announcement, it achieved everything he might have wished for: it scuppered any chance of peace talks unless the Palestinians surrender every last shred of dignity; it delivered an incredible slap in the face to both Biden and his boss; and it neatly focused world attention on the timing of the announcement rather than its content.

Green light

The spin Ha'aretz newspaper put on the diplomatic crisis that ensued was that by reacting to the perceived insult rather than challenging the planning decision, the US vice president had, in effect, given Israel a "green light for [Occupied] East Jerusalem construction". A remarkably unrepentant Netanyahu was soon telling the Likud party that "building in [Occupied] Jerusalem, and in all other places, will continue."

But this is not 1997 and Netanyahu may soon have reason to regret his arrogance towards Obama and his disregard for the Palestinian people, moral integrity and international justice.

In 1997 the second intifada had not taken place, nor had 9/11; it was before the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and before Israel's 2008-09 vicious attack on the suffering people of Gaza whose blood and tears were witnessed on television screens the world over.

Netanyahu is dangerously out of touch with world opinion for there has been a shift in sympathies. Israel is widely perceived as having gone the way of many victims of bullying by becoming the biggest possible bully itself. And nobody likes a bully.

And crucially, for the first time, the US military is openly questioning the wisdom of America's unconditional support for Israel. The Zionists' abuse of Palestinians is recognised as the number one recruitment tool for radical Islamist groups, Al Qaida in particular. Even among the most moderate Muslims the connection is made between US policy and Israel's actions.

With upwards of 200,000 American soldiers deployed in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Gulf, US generals are concerned.

In January, in an unprecedented foray into the political arena, the commander of US security interests in the Middle East, General David Petraeus, sent a team of senior officers to brief the Pentagon. Israel, they said, has become a liability rather than an asset in the region and its actions put American soldiers' lives at risk. As US military commentator Mark Perry put it, "this isn't about Israel's security, it's about our security."

In the Arab world and beyond, Obama is seen as incapable of standing up to Israel, and no wonder. Although in reality it is America's most dependent and needy ally, on Netanyahu's watch Israel has behaved like an unrestrained tyrannical global heavyweight, massacring unarmed Palestinians by the hundreds, laying siege to Gaza, sending Mossad heavies to carry out political assassinations on foreign soil and toying with the peace process like a sadistic cat with a dying mouse.

The Obama administration's initial response to the Biden debacle promised to be more robust: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, personally briefed by Obama, harangued Netanyahu during a 43 minute telephone conversation, hinting that US support for Israel was not unconditional and demanding that the planning decision be revoked; the Israeli Ambassador to Washington, Michael Oren, received "an extremely harsh" reprimand and described the diplomatic crisis as "the worst since 1975"; while US Middle East envoy George Mitchell cancelled a planned visit to Israel.

Then, at the weekend, the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) released a statement urging Barack Obama to "remember that Israel enjoys vast bi-partisan support in Congress" to "resolve" his differences with Netanyahu and, crucially, "not to let it detract from Iran" (Israel's current choice of smokescreen).

Netanyahu's apparent lack of respect for Obama springs from this — the Zionist lobby's immense power in the US political arena. He does not see Obama as likely to survive into a second term. Furthermore, the opportunistic Israeli prime minister's desire for personal power is such that if he must choose between warmer relations with the current US administration or pleasing his ruling coalition's right-wing extremists (backed by AIPAC), the latter wins every time. With that all important sense of timing, Netanyahu flies to Washington this week to address AIPAC.

Netanyahu's confidence, however, may be misplaced. The Zionist lobby is no longer the only one that matters in Washington. The emerging, politicised and outspoken military bosses are a phenomenal force and they are neither Obama's men nor Israel's.

Abdel Bari Atwan is editor of the pan-Arab newspaper Al Quds Al Arabi.