Mousa gives Egyptians a cryptic clue

It's been an exciting week in Egyptian politics. The charismatic Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mousa has hinted for the first time that he may throw his hat into the 2011 presidential ring. His recent refusal to rule himself out as a candidate has elicited a real buzz in the local press.

For years, the papers have been speculating on the succession of 81-year-old president Hosni Mubarak highlighting only two viable successors: the high-profile president's youngest son Jamal Mubarak and the lesser-known director of the Egyptian Intelligence Services, Omar Sulaiman. If Mousa is serious and can garner the support of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), he is in with a real chance.

But there is many a slip between cup and lip, which is probably why Mousa is hesitant to confirm his candidacy. It may be that he wants to find out who his likely opponents would be before he makes a commitment. For one thing, president Mubarak hasn't responded to questions as to whether he intends running again, and, for another, his son Jamal is equally coy concerning his own presidential ambitions. Each time Mubarak is asked about his son's aspirations, he responds with "Ask him!" while Mubarak Junior maintains disinterest in the top job.

The problem is that the majority of Egyptians take these denials with a huge shovel of salt. Most do not harbour a personal grudge against 46-year-old Jamal Mubarak, who is a business-savvy reformist with an excellent relationship with Washington. I have yet to meet anyone in Egypt who relishes a Pakistan/Syrian-style dynastical succession, but he can count on the support of prime minister Ahmad Nazif who recently said, "I think Jamal is an excellent person. He is knowledgeable. He has been in the political system enough to understand the issues. He shows vision. He is young."

As general-secretary of the NDP's policy committee and as someone who is familiar with Egypt's problems, Jamal's credentials could be considered impeccable, but he faces three major obstacles besides his surname: his relative youth and his lack of military background. Both of Jamal Abdul Nasser's successors — Anwar Al Sadat and Hosni Mubarak — were drawn from the army and air force respectively. Whether the military would approve a leader who did not emerge from its ranks is unknown.

One of his biggest detractors is the founder of the Al Ghad (Tomorrow) Party, Ayman Nour, who has got together with opposition parties to launch a campaign against the presidency being passed from father to son under such slogans as "He shall not inherit" and "He shall not rule".

The influential Egyptian political commentator Mohammad Hassanein Haikel has also taken up the cudgel against the succession of president Mubarak's son. He believes that Jamal should abstain from the race in the same way that a judge would withdraw from a case involving his own brother.

Too old for the post

Amr Mousa is similarly disadvantaged. In 2011, he will be 75 years old, which some view as being too old for the post and, like Jamal Mubarak, he is not a military man. From 1984 until 1991, Mousa served his country as a career diplomat. Following a brief spell as Cairo's ambassador to India, he was appointed Egypt's ambassador to the United Nations.

His tenure as foreign minister from 1991 until 2001, when he condemned the symbiotic relationship between the US and Israel, brought him to prominence, and many ordinary Egyptians were saddened when he moved away from the political frontlines to the Arab League.

Indeed, at one time, he was wildly popular at home, and, still is, especially with the older generation. In 2004, a web community petitioned Mousa to run in the 2005 elections while the Egyptian singer Shaba'an Abdul Rahim immortalised him in a controversial anti-Israel song. Despite his reputation for having a quick temper, Time magazine once dubbed him as "perhaps the most adored public servant in the Arab world".

I decided to feel the pulse of Egyptian public opinion by conducting a spontaneous and totally unscientific mini poll. I telephoned ten acquaintances from all walks of life and asked them whether they would back Amr Mousa for president.

Eight out of the ten said they would because he is "honest, respectable and trustworthy", as "foreign minister he defended Egypt's interests", "he understands the problems of Egypt and the Arab world", "he would work towards Arab unity", "he is responsible for 22 countries, so he can easily take responsibility for one".

One of those who said he wouldn't vote for him, a policeman, said he hoped president Mubarak would stay on for another 20 years, while the other, a factory worker, insisted that the country needed "an iron fist".

As president Mubarak remains tightlipped concerning his own future plans and those of his son, speculation is set to grow. In the meantime, the list of potential successors lengthens with such names as International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammad Al Baradei, Nobel Prize winner Dr Ahmad Zuweili, and Defence Minister Mohammad Hussain Tantawi having been added. Roll on 2011! The suspense is killing.

Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted at lheard@gulfnews.com. Some comments may be considered for publication.