Is Musharraf vindicated?

A day after winning a significant victory in Pakistan's supreme court on Friday, General Pervez Musharraf, the military ruler, should have been confident of heading towards a clear and undisputed victory.

And yet, an overkill yesterday, with a tough police crackdown against protesting lawyers and opposition leaders, spoke volumes about the government's discomfort.

On Friday, the supreme court knocked out two petitions against Musharraf for his decision to contest elections on October 6 while serving as chief of the military staff. The petitions came from opponents of the president who argue he cannot contest the elections while also serving as the head of the military.

Pakistani law forbids a civil servant, such as the chief of staff, from also serving in a political office, such as the president. The verdict may have been driven in part by Musharraf's promise that he would retire from the military by November 15 this year, to serve subsequently just as a civilian president. The judges may have also taken the view that the allowance given to Musharraf for also serving as the military chief, came as a result of a constitutional amendment.

With so much going for him, Pakistan's police and security services yesterday used batons and fired tear gas to subdue protesting lawyers and opposition leaders. The clearly excessive use of force was in response to threats from lawyers who had promised to surround the premises of the election commission, in protest against the president. For the lawyers, the allowance given to Musharraf to contest the polls is the beginning of another controversial five-year tenure for Pakistan's ruler.

But, for Musharraf, using force to combat the protesters in itself is counter-productive. In fact, such a response must only give additional life to his opponents who argue that the General is determined to prolong his rule, by hook or by crook. Yesterday, Musharraf's opponents clearly emerged as the voices of sanity in the face of a regime that is determined to use excessive force to curb dissent. In his zeal to consolidate his position, the president has in fact only contributed to more uncertainty.

Unwelcome paths

For Pakistan, the future outlook appears to be hinged on two clearly unwelcome paths. On the one hand, the uncertainty which began in March this year when Musharraf suspended Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhary, chief justice of the supreme court, is bound to continue. Pakistan's politically charged-up lawyers used the opportunity to campaign hard for the restoration of Chaudhary. In the process, Chaudhary won widespread public acclaim and became the undisputed public hero number one. His restoration as chief justice of the supreme court in July has only given further momentum to the movement of the lawyers, including many who protested yesterday. It's clear that Pakistani lawyers have become a new political force to reckon with. Their decision to back justice (retired) Wajihuddin Ahmad, a widely respected former judge, as their candidate for the presidential election, says much about the intention of Pakistani lawyers to remain politically engaged.

On the other hand, Musharraf is increasingly giving an opportunity to the opposition parties to join hands in creating a common front against the government. Not too long ago, Pakistan was abuzz with reports of a possible power sharing agreement between Benazir Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Musharraf.

But now it seems that a Musharraf-Bhutto agreement is not on the cards. Circumstantial evidence suggests the initiative broke down primarily because Musharraf wanted to keep his hold on political power without even partially conceding authority as part of a so-called power sharing agreement.

Ultimately, Musharraf is showing signs of being totally self-serving and self-centred. Yesterday, Pakistan saw much evidence that its ruling General cannot even swallow victory, let alone defeat. The scenes of police using force on Islamabad's streets could well mark the beginning of another period of turbulence in Pakistan's chequered history.

Farhan Bokhari is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and economic matters.