Iraq celebrates democracy

The sea of voters leaving polling booths with purple fingers was stirring testament to Iraq's first major election since 2005. After casting their ballots last Saturday, millions dipped their index fingers in indelible purple ink to prevent multiple voting.

"In ancient Rome, purple was for emperors," says the poet Fadil Sultani. "For us it is the colour of freedom."

Since the fall of Saddam Hussain in 2003, Iraq has seen five local and general elections and referendums. The first exercise attracted some three million voters, about a fifth of the electorate. By 2005 that figure had risen to 70 per cent.

The latest election is to provide local authorities the mandate to build the federal structures envisaged by the new constitution.

The poll was conducted in 14 of the country's 18 provinces, leaving out the three Kurdish-majority provinces which will hold elections later, plus a fourth whose status is yet to be determined.

Taking part in the race were 14,431 candidates, running as individuals or as members of 401 political parties and groups.

The fact that the election took place without major incidents - there were only there minor attacks - represents a major success for Iraq. Even a year ago, the pundits were given to believe that the government of Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki would not achieve the consensus needed to organise the exercise.

Some mainstream parties opposed federalism and campaigned to revive the tradition of a highly centralised state with power vested in Baghdad. Others believed that disagreement over the ethnic status of Kirkuk, an oil-rich province, would render the holding of federal elections impossible.

And, yet, here we are now with an Iraq that seems united in support of its new constitution and determined to deepen the roots of its fledgling democracy.

Another reason why the turnout was reasonably high is the emergence of a new generation of politicians with local roots. These rising stars of Iraqi politics have been on the campaign trail for months, preaching reform and change, often with unexpected success.

However, the key reason is the improved security situation. In 2005, going to the polls was an act of heroism in the face of terrorists determined to nip the new democracy in the bud. The slogan scribbled on many walls was simple: From box to box! (Meaning: from the ballot box to the coffin.)

In the general election of 2005, terrorists assassinated over 300 candidates and killed perhaps three times as many voters. This time, however, only three candidates have been assassinated, so far. The Sunni majority provinces, once the stronghold of Al Qaida and its Saddamite allies, are now among the most peaceful in the country.

Although the parties in the Maliki-led coalition enjoyed a built-in advantage thanks to their access to the resources of the state, almost all have ended up as losers.

Al Maliki's own party, Ad-Da'awah (The Call) may emerge as the largest bloc in the federal assemblies of four of the 10 mainly Shiite provinces (At present, it enjoys such a position in one province: Karbala). The Islamic Party of Iraq, the principal Sunni outfit in the coalition, looks set for defeat in three of the four provinces where the community accounts for a majority of the population.

The election was also a referendum of sorts on religion-based parties, both Shiite and Sunni.

In the previous elections, parties had banded together based on sectarian allegiances, forcing the electorate to choose among lists based on such considerations rather than individual candidates and parties.

This time, however, parties were contesting the election with distinct lists. There were also numerous independent candidates representing groups of "concerned citizens".

The Islamist parties are certain to suffer a resounding defeat going by the interim results. Moqtada Al Sadr, the firebrand cleric backed by Iran, has thrown his support behind a group under the label Al Ahrar (The Free). It is set to collect around three per cent of the votes, most of them in the slums on the edge of Baghdad.

The High Islamic Assembly (SCIRI), another Iran-backed outfit, is set to lose all the four Shiite provinces it controls. The third major Shiite party, Fadila (Virtue) is likely to lose Basra, the only province it dominated.

Despite massive support from Tehran, the group around former prime minister Ebrahim Al Jaafari, dissidents from Ad-Da'awah, is unlikely to make much of an impression.

If Al Maliki's group seems stop have done well in places, the main reason may be his decision to drop the term "Islamic" from the name of his party.

An important feature of this election is that, for the first time, several groups, and dozens of individual candidates, are running as "secularists" (Ilmaniyoun). The results show the "secularists" in the lead in three of the four Sunni provinces, Baghdad, and six Shiite provinces.

This time Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Al Sistani, the principal Shiite cleric, refused to endorse any group or a single Shiite list.

Since no single party is likely to win a majority in any of the 14 provinces, a coalition era seems on the cards.

Amir Taheri is an Iranian writer based in Europe.