Cauldron of contempt in Iraq

The New Year started in Iraq in the same manner as the previous one — with an expanding crisis. Iraqis have been demonstrating in the Al Anbar province and other locations against the central government.

Many Iraqis in other parts of the country also sympathise with these demonstrators and it is not unlikely that these protests will turn into an armed confrontation with government forces.

The atmosphere is electric and the situation threatens to get out of control at all levels of society. At the popular level, there is widespread contempt for the government due to lack of basic services, a policy of exclusion and marginalisation and targeting of a wider segment of the population. People have also had enough of corruption, human rights violations in prisons, the constant worry about the unity of Iraq and are disgusted with the sectarian basis of the political process.

Accusations and counter accusations between the ruling elite have also reached unprecedented levels of violence, which makes the possibility of their continuation as partners in the political process remote.

In reality, the political situation in Iraq is a result of policies during the first year after the US invasion of the country. At the time, the Governing Council chaired by US civilian governor Paul Bremer had laid down the foundations of the political process taking place in the country today.

The entire set-up was based on ethnic and sectarian lines and not on national affiliation. Hence, a decade after the downfall of the Baathist regime, Iraqi governments have been unable to establish a strong state and the crisis still continues.

With the continuation of demonstrations and strikes in a number of governorates, most of the political elites went back to their entrenched positions. They soon divided themselves into groups defending the government against demonstrators because they belonged to the ruling coalition. However, no one looked into the legitimacy of the demands or the manner in which they were calling for applying them, as some of those demands were the responsibility of the Iraqi parliament.

In some governorates, the stage is set for an uprising, with serious consequences. The Iraqi government will be unable to face the uprising in a positive manner as it is inflexible and is not keen on dealing with the demonstrators in the right way. The government’s reaction was harsh and exaggerated, as Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki described the demonstrations as being a “foul smelling bubble”. He also threatened to resort to force to open the road between Baghdad, Amman and Damascus, which is controlled by the protesters.

These threats are very dangerous as they come from the head of the executive authority in the country. True, the demonstrators’ cutting off the international highway to Jordan and Syria jeopardises both government and business interests in the cities to the west of Ramadi. However, Al Maliki’s threats antagonised Sunnis to a large extent. And despite the fact that he did not repeat his threats, he did not work on settling the issue or respond to the demonstrators’ demands either.

The view of the “politicians by chance” — a term coined by an Iraqi columnist — about the Iraqi citizen who demands his rights or objects to some of the government’s procedures is that he is an enemy and must be excluded. This is a great mistake, to say the least. Dealing with demonstrators as enemies seeking to apply foreign agendas, is against reason and reflects the mentality of Iraqi politicians who should not be holding office or making decisions.

The crisis has gone on for more than two weeks now and the ceiling of demands is increasing as the demonstrators are becoming more organised. There are media reports of mixed messages from the Iraqi premier about dismantling the government and the House of Representatives and seeking early elections over a period of 60 days.

Dr Ayad Allawi’s Al Iraqiya coalition was quick to welcome this decision on the condition that Al Maliki will have to step down until the government is substituted with a transitional government, put together by the parliament under UN supervision.

2013 may well be one of the most dangerous years since the fall of the former Iraqi regime, because the region is witnessing so many changes.

The Syrian regime may well collapse this year and it will be very difficult to foresee its impact on the explosive situation in Iraq.

However, the Iraqi prime minister will find himself in a much more difficult situation than the one he is in currently.

Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.