Calibrated compromises

Iranians are proud of their country's history and heritage. It is evident from the local visitors to Persepolis, the magnificent ruins that symbolise the height of Persian power. The glory of Persepolis is now bound with the nuclear issue.

One young Iranian told me once that the people of some nations who did not have shoes to wear "now have nuclear plants; so why cannot we?"

If any doubt remains about the support Iranians extend to their government in its quest to harness the atom, the answer comes emphatically from Persepolis.

Along with the Iranian pride comes a Russian determination to restore Iran's dignity by resisting the attempts of some Western countries for tougher United Nations sanctions against Tehran.

Moscow also agreed to sell advanced anti-aircraft systems to Iran, and delivered nuclear fuel shipment to a reactor it is helping to build at Bushehr.

This determination to restore Iran's pride is led, mainly, by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Amid all these ambitions of Darius' descendents in Iran stands the US with its long-time ally Israel. Washington and its ally are watching a snowstorm blowing from Moscow as the warning sign of a possible change in the anticipated "calm summer" of 2009 in the Middle East.

There are mixed reactions from Washington and Tel Aviv to the manner in which to deal with what many in the inner circles of these countries describe as "an unprecedented threat" to American national interests and the very existence of Israel.

Several important gestures, though conflicting at times, have been emanating from the Americans. In a new spirit of cooperation with the Kremlin, they pushed the reset button on their ties and restored Moscow's relations with Nato.

Americans were seen as easing their position towards a new strategic arms pact, not to mention a show of willingness to slow the deployment, or even cancellation, of the missile defence project.

On the Iranian side, the American invitation to Tehran to attend a conference on troubled Afghanistan and the relatively positive reply by Tehran's spokesman Gholam Hussain Elham reveals the shared interests both sides have in bringing stability to the country.

Americans are aware of the strong ties Iranians maintain with the Hazara minority in Afghanistan, and its influence over former Afghan prime minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who is currently 'hiding' in Iran.

Yet US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did not hesitate to accuse Iran of "promoting terrorism", "fomenting divisions in the Arab world", and "posing missile threats to Israel and Europe".

So, what does the US want from Russia and Iran?

It comes as no surprise that the White House is trying to secure what can be called 'the zone of privileged interests'. By offering a compromise on the missile shield, Americans expect Moscow to stand in the same trench as themselves - when the battle with its arch-foe takes place at the UN Security Council - or at least abstain from using the veto.

The US can also bury the hatchet with Russia by not supporting Georgia and Ukraine in their bid to join Nato. In return, Moscow could be less cooperative on completing the process of activating the Bushehr nuclear plant.

As for Iranians, it is necessary that Tehran intervenes to convince Hezbollah in Lebanon to turn into a conventional party and, eventually, lay down arms.

The same goes to the Palestinian factions Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Lately, Iran used its influence on them to accept a ceasefire with Israel for a limited period in Gaza.

With such stances, Iran's gains can be numerous: recognition of its role as the regional heavyweight, security guarantees (especially in Iraq), stronger economic ties between Iran and major world powers, and an international acceptance of its right to develop a 'peaceful' nuclear programme.

All sides may be in search of a package deal, but the contents of the package for each are different.

Some say a half-democratic Russia will always be a half-ally to the US. Others are expecting the White House to have a hard time in grinding Iranian pistachio.

But few know that a partial solution to the thorny problems is nothing but a waste of time before the 'big bang' begins.

Rauf Baker is a Dubai-based journalist who specialises in Eastern European Affairs.