A Syrian at the parade

Is Syria's President Bashar Assad about to switch sides? The answer given by the entourage of French President Nicolas Sarkozy is an empathic yes. And it has to be. After all, Sarkozy has invited the Syrian leader to sit next to him in the presidential niche during the July 14 military parade, the most important public holiday in France honouring the Great French Revolution. The invitation, a rare honour bestowed on few foreign leaders, is designed to transform Bashar from an international pariah into a valued partner not only for France but also for the European Union as a whole. After all, Sarkozy is the current holder of EU's presidency.

Sarkozy's move is interesting not only because no other Western leader is prepared to touch the Syrian with a barge pole, but also because it was France under president Jacques Chirac that led international efforts to isolate Syria.

So, why is Sarkozy doing this?

Cynics might say he is simply thumbing his nose at his long-time tormentor Chirac, as he has done on many other issues. Chirac had vowed to destroy Bashar's regime, so Sarkozy decides to do the opposite by saving the Syrian.

Idealists, including Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, would disagree. As far as Kouchner is concerned, giving Bashar a second chance is the right move on both moral and political grounds. After all, it might well be that the Syrian president is a closet reformer held in chains by the Ba'athist old guard in Damascus. Helping him shake off the chain might enable him to fly his true reformist colours. His British education and British wife of Syrian origin are also cited as indications that he might not be as closed to change as some imagine.

Realists might have another explanation.

The regime as a whole feels threatened on two fronts. One front is represented by the major Western powers, led by the United States, that appear determined to push Bashar's back to the wall. On the second front we have the mullahs of Iran spinning the cobweb of their presence in Syria. Today, the mullahs talk of partnership and alliance. But it is clear that their strategic goal is to help create a Syrian regime that shares their creed as opposed to the current Ba'athist one that, deep down, remains hostile to Khomeinism both on religious and ideological grounds.

Even if one discounts the possibility of an imminent break with Tehran, there is no doubt that Damascus is anxious not to put all its eggs in the Iranian basket. The Assad dynasty has always tried to keep its options open. At the height of the Cold War it was an ally of the Soviet Union while maintaining good working relations with the United States. Between 1970 when he seized power until his death in 2000, Hafez Assad was the only Arab leader to have had one-on-one meetings with all American presidents from Richard Nixon to Bill Clinton.

Revive a tradition

Is Bashar trying to revive a tradition set by his father by proving that Syria is something more than part of an Iranian glacis in the Levant?

To get the invitation for the parade on the Champs Elysee this weekend, Bashar has already made some down payment.

First, he has welcomed a Turkish mediation to revive peace talks with Israel, something that Syria had categorically ruled out in 2006 when the Iranian mullahs were trying to set up a new Rejection Front that also included the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad organisations. Syria's defection has undermined Tehran's efforts to forge a "wipe-Israel-off-the-map" coalition.

Bashar's down payment also includes an end to his campaign for preventing Lebanon from having anything resembling a working government. Lebanon has been able to elect a new president and may also announce a new Cabinet. More importantly, the Syrian has had to swallow the continuation of Fouad Siniora's premiership, something he had vowed he would never tolerate.

Assad has made two more concessions to get the invitation. He has agreed to attend the first summit of the Mediterranean Union, Sarkozy's most important foreign policy initiative so far. The Syrian had vowed not to attend because Israel has also been invited. Once he had changed his mind about attending, Bashar had lobbied hard for the Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to be placed at a separate table. Faced with a firm French refusal, the Syrian eventually agreed to sit at the same table as Olmert, ignoring the ire of Damascus's Khomeinist benefactors in Tehran.

Despite all that, Sarkozy's move may in the end prove to have been a foolish gambit by someone with little experience in foreign policy. The idea that young Bashar is a closet reformer might have sounded plausible six years ago. Today, however, there is enough evidence to show that he has totally identified with a regime that refuses any attempt at serious reform. The decision to accept the French invitation is no big deal either. By refusing to attend the summit of 40 nations he would have highlighted nothing but his own isolation.

It is also a safe bet that, for the time being at least, Bashar would not break with the mullahs who have emerged as the principal guarantors of his rule.

The ruling elite in Syria has four interests.

In descending order of importance these are: self preservation, sabotaging the UN investigation into Damascus's role in political murders in Lebanon, a Syrian return to Lebanon in a form that enables the elite to restore and expand its business interests there, and, finally, recovering the Golan Heights occupied by Israel since 1967.

Except for the return of Golan that Israel says it is prepared to contemplate, none of the other Syrian objectives merit French or international support. Why should France, or anybody else for that matter, help prolong the life of a regime which may not be the choice of the Syrian people? And what interest would France have in derailing the enquiry into the murder of Lebanese leaders, including former prime minister Rafik Hariri to save senior Syrian leaders from ending up in front of the International Criminal Court at the Hague? Nor would a return of the Syrian business and political domination of Lebanon serve any French or European interest.

Once the July 14 parade is over and the Syrian first couple return home after a brief holiday and shopping spree in Paris, the real question will remain: is the Ba'athist elite prepared for a strategic switch from alliance with the mullahs to one of partnership with the Western democracies? We might know the answer after Bashar visits Tehran to brief his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on talks with Sarkozy.

Amir Taheri is an Iranian writer based in Europe.