Who will replace the ailing Sharon?

The illness of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has thrown Israel and its immediate neighbours into turmoil. Whether Sharon survives will be known soon, but even if so, it is unlikely he will be able to continue in his position as prime minister. The job is arduous, even for a fit person, and Sharon is far from fit in normal circumstances; the stroke in December followed by further strokes on Wednesday have put the governance of the country into crisis situation.

It is too early to talk of the legacy, if any, of Sharon, but not of who will replace him. The Deputy Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, has become acting prime minister while Sharon is incapacitated, but while being a wily politician of the old school, he lacks the gravitas of Sharon and it is questionable whether he will be able to command the support Sharon enjoyed.

The Israeli Justice Ministry has already announced that the dissolution of parliament and elections scheduled for March 28 will continue on schedule, but who will lead Sharon's newly-formed Kadima (Forward) party remains to be seen. And upon that will rest the future prospects of peace between Palestine and Israel, for that is dependent upon who will lead the country after March.