The writing is on the wall

With so many reports and polls calling for a reduction of US troops in Iraq, it would seem General David Petreaus will make few surprises in his comments before Congress tomorrow. As George W. Bush's "man in Iraq" will have been informed the president will take no precipitous action until he has received a briefing from Petreaus. Yet by one way or another various leaks have surfaced indicating the "surge" anticipated by Bush did not materialise in the expected manner and, worse from Bush's point of view, that some troops can be recalled - and not replaced - by as early as March next year. As it is evident the US is a long way from achieving Bush's declared objectives over Iraq, it raises the question of whether the public is being primed for an announcement of a complete withdrawal from Iraq next year, and long before the battle is won.

The US government accountability office presented a report to Congress saying only three of 18 benchmarks set by Congress were met in Iraq. A special 20-member US security commission has recommended the US withdraw many of its troops, starting early next year, so as not to be seen as an occupying force. And a recent BBC poll of over 23,000 people in 22 countries showed over 32 per cent of those polled wanted the US to withdraw from Iraq immediately, with a further 28 per cent asking for a pull out within a year.

In response to calls from the public and political opposition, Bush has said he will be guided by his generals and not by opinion polls. But retired army generals, unable to speak out while in service, are calling for withdrawal. Contemptuous dismissal by the administration that their views are out of date may not hold good any longer once Petreaus has given his report.