Sri Lanka set to launch final assault

It looks as though Sri Lankan forces are about to launch an assault on the last areas controlled by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), who now control only 12 square kilometres of land. In a war that has been going on since 1972, the Sri Lankan military says the Tigers are about to lose their final battle.

This optimism could be premature. The Tigers have come back from the brink before, and even if they lose all control of territory, they could well remain an effective guerrilla force and fight a terrorist war that could go on for years. The Tigers are the organisation that invented and first used the horror of the suicide bomber, long before they controlled any land.

For any success to be long term, it has to be a political success, which depends on the Tamil people of the northeast of Sri Lanka deciding for themselves that they do not want the war to go on, and that they will stop backing the Tigers. The people are already exhausted by the war, and the Tigers now appear to have committed serious crimes against humanity by forcing tens of thousands of Tamil civilians into their last redoubt as unwilling human shields. This act has the hallmark of the Tigers' veteran leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran, who is a ruthless and very effective commander. Any victory will be much more secure if he is captured and brought to justice for his crimes.

Long-term peace will come when the Tigers are defeated militarily, and the Tamil leaders who have never been part of the terrorist struggle are able to take their proper place in a more peaceful Sri Lanka without fear of Tiger assassinations, and work for effective devolution within the nation state.