Each incident in the ongoing shadow war between Iran and its opponents can very easily slip into a much more dangerous general confrontation, which would be bad for the Gulf and the region as a whole. The current round of UN sanctions is already hitting Iran badly, and the US and EU are planning to introduce more severe sanctions in addition to the UN approved sanctions. As confrontation mounts, it is important to remember that only negotiations will provide an end to the crisis. The disturbing lack of interest in talking, and Washington's refusal to offer Iran a political exit other than humiliation is not helping.
Iran's leadership now feels badly threatened, but it has already proved that it is ready to lash out: Iran has held British sailors hostage for over a week, shot down an American drone, and allowed the storming of the British embassy. The latest incidents have been three attempted attacks on Israeli diplomats in New Delhi, Tbilisi, and Bangkok. Iran has denied any involvement, but in Thailand one attacker blew his own legs off as he tried to fling a bomb at police, and he turned out to be Iranian, as was an accomplice. We can only expect more bizarre incidents in the Gulf and around the world as Iran and its accusers face off, and it is important that they do not ignite a more general confrontation.
Iran is not doing itself any favours by refusing to meet the International Atomic Energy Agency's demands for free access to substantiate their denial of any interest in nuclear weapons. Ahmadinejad's government should be transparent on this, as is required by the letter and spirit of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. His insistence on secrecy only supports the suspicion that Iran is developing the technology with which it can build nuclear weapons.
